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The Increasing Default Risk of U.S. Treasuries Securities Due to the Financial Crisis

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  • Srinivas Nippani
  • Stanley D. Smith

Abstract

We examine the impact of the current financial crisis on long-term U.S. Treasury yields by testing the impact of a series of events from December 2007 to March 2009 on the spread between 10-year United States Dollar (USD) London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) swap and 10-year U.S. Treasury (constant maturity) rates to measure risk associated with Treasuries. Controlling for the liquidity of the two markets, the default risk of the swap, and the net foreign purchases of Treasury securities, we find that 13 of the tested 20 events have significantly negative coefficients. We conclude that the lower spread is consistent with greater default risk for U.S. Treasury securities.

Suggested Citation

  • Srinivas Nippani & Stanley D. Smith, 2009. "The Increasing Default Risk of U.S. Treasuries Securities Due to the Financial Crisis," NFI Working Papers 2010-WP-01, Indiana State University, Scott College of Business, Networks Financial Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:nfi:nfiwps:2010-wp-01
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Liu, Pu & Shao, Yingying & Yeager, Timothy J., 2009. "Did the repeated debt ceiling controversies embed default risk in US Treasury securities?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(8), pages 1464-1471, August.
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial Crises; Treasury Securities; Bond Default Risk; Risk-free Interest Rate;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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