Getting bad news out early: does it really help stock prices?
In this paper, we examine the stock price benefit of meeting or beating earnings expectations. Using a general methodology, we find no evidence that the timing of earnings news has any benefit for firms' stock returns. In fact, in many cases we find firms attempting to engineer positive earnings surprises by beating down expectations only to discover that their efforts are counterproductive. Our results appear to overturn the findings of previous authors who, using less general methodologies, have suggested that firms can boost their stock returns by getting bad news out early. Our results are robust across time periods, for different scaling factors on earnings revisions and surprises, when controlling for firm size and growth prospects, and when conditioned on past earnings news.
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- Oliver LINTON, .
"Applied nonparametric methods,"
Statistic und Oekonometrie
9312, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.
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"Applied Nonparametric Methods,"
9206, Tilburg - Center for Economic Research.
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- Wolfgang Hardle & Oliver Linton, 1994. "Applied Nonparametric Methods," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1069, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- HÄRDLE, Wolfgang, 1992. "Applied nonparametric methods," CORE Discussion Papers 1992003, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Hardle, W., 1992. "Applied Nonparametric Methods," Papers 9204, Catholique de Louvain - Institut de statistique.
- Cleveland, William S. & Devlin, Susan J. & Grosse, Eric, 1988. "Regression by local fitting : Methods, properties, and computational algorithms," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 87-114, January.
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