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Rising Skill Supply, Technological Changes, and Innovation: A Quantitative Exploration of China

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  • Shijun Gu
  • Chengcheng Jia

Abstract

Can the expansion of higher education lead to firm productivity growth? In this paper, we examine how China's college expansion program contributes to the rapid growth of firms' R&D expenditure and productivity. In our model, heterogeneous firms make endogenous R&D decisions, requiring them to allocate skilled workers between production and R&D. We structurally estimate the model using firm-level data on the level and distribution of R&D, as well as macro-level data on skill prices and sectoral allocation. Quantitative analysis reveals that between 2004 and 2018, the combination of the R&D-sector-biased technology shock, the skill-biased technology shock, and the skilled-labor supply shock leads to a 12 percent increase in total factor productivity (TFP), of which one-fifth is explained by the rising supply of skilled labor. Counterfactual analysis shows that a further increase in the share of skilled labor has the potential to increase TFP by an additional 2 percent, but the marginal effect diminishes due to the rising wages of unskilled labor.

Suggested Citation

  • Shijun Gu & Chengcheng Jia, 2025. "Rising Skill Supply, Technological Changes, and Innovation: A Quantitative Exploration of China," Working Papers WP 25-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcwq:101133
    DOI: 10.26509/frbc-wp-202515
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    R&D; TFP; skilled labor; college expansion; Chinese economy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
    • O32 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Management of Technological Innovation and R&D

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