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Collateral damage: effects of the Japanese real estate collapse on credit availability and real activity in the United States

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  • Joe Peek
  • Eric S. Rosengren

Abstract

The dramatic 70 percent decline in Japanese commercial real estate prices from their peak in 1990 provides a natural experiment to test the extent to which a loan supply shock can affect real economic activity. Because the shock was external to U.S. credit markets, yet connected through the substantial penetration of U.S. lending markets by Japanese banks, this event allows us to identify an exogenous loan supply shock and ultimately link that shock to construction activity in major commercial real estate markets in the United States. We use panel data that exploit the variation across geographically distinct commercial real estate markets in the United States, both in degree of Japanese bank penetration and in local demand conditions, to establish conclusively that loan supply shocks emanating from loan problems in Japan had real effects on economic activity in the United States. Revised 1999.

Suggested Citation

  • Joe Peek & Eric S. Rosengren, 1997. "Collateral damage: effects of the Japanese real estate collapse on credit availability and real activity in the United States," Working Papers 97-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedbwp:97-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    6. Anil K. Kashyap & Jeremy C. Stein, 1994. "Monetary Policy and Bank Lending," NBER Chapters,in: Monetary Policy, pages 221-261 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    8. Jeremy C. Stein, 1998. "An Adverse-Selection Model of Bank Asset and Liability Management with Implications for the Transmission of Monetary Policy," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 29(3), pages 466-486, Autumn.
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    12. Diana Hancock & James A. Wilcox, 1992. "The effect on bank assets of business conditions and capital shortfalls," Proceedings 373, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
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    Cited by:

    1. Eva Catarineu-Rabell & Patricia Jackson & Dimitrios Tsomocos, 2005. "Procyclicality and the new Basel Accord - banks’ choice of loan rating system," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 26(3), pages 537-557, October.
    2. Lynn Elaine Browne & Rebecca Hellerstein & Jane Sneddon Little, 1998. "Inflation, asset markets, and economic stabilization: lessons from Asia," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Sep, pages 3-32.
    3. Florence Béranger & Jérôme Teïletche, 2003. "Bâle II et la procyclicité," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 73(4), pages 227-250.
    4. Hancock, Diana & Wilcox, James A., 1998. "The "credit crunch" and the availability of credit to small business," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(6-8), pages 983-1014, August.
    5. Hesna Genay, 1998. "Assessing the condition of Japanese banks: how informative are accounting earnings?," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q IV, pages 12-34.
    6. Efraim Benmelech & Nittai K. Bergman & Amit Seru, 2011. "Financing Labor," NBER Working Papers 17144, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Takeo Hoshi & Anil Kashyap, 2000. "The Japanese Banking Crisis: Where Did It Come From and How Will It End?," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1999, Volume 14, pages 129-212 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Miguel Angel Segoviano & Philip Lowe, 2002. "Internal ratings, the business cycle, and capital requirements: some evidence from an emerging market economy," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    9. Caprio Jr., Gerard, 1998. "Banking on crises : expensive lessons from recent financial crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1979, The World Bank.

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