Knightian uncertainty and interbank lending
The bursting of the housing price bubble during 2007 and 2008 was accompanied by high interbank spreads, and a partial breakdown of interbank lending. This paper theoretically models how Knightian uncertainty over banks risk exposures may have contributed to the breakdown. The paper shows: 1) the two-tier structure of the U.S. Fed Funds market makes it robust to uncertainty, but the market may nevertheless collapse — and private incentives to restart it may be insufficient. 2) In some circumstances government bank audits and information releases about exposures that resemble a stress test can restart markets and improve welfare by internalizing an externality associated with economy-wide uncertainty reduction. 3) Collapses due to uncertainty are less likely ex-ante and less costly to fix ex-post when there is better publicly available information on core banks aggregate risk exposures. Based on 2) and 3), ex-ante and ex-post “transparency initiatives” are proposed. Their success depends on the financial architecture of bank interlinkages.
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- Heider, F. & Hoerova, M. & Holthausen, C., 2009.
"Liquidity Hoarding and Interbank Market Spreads : The Role of Counterparty Risk,"
2009-40 S, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Heider, Florian & Hoerova, Marie & Holthausen, Cornelia, 2010. "Liquidity Hoarding and Interbank Market Spreads: The Role of Counterparty Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 7762, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Marie Hoerova & Cornelia Holthausen & Florian Heider, 2009. "Liquidity hoarding and interbank market spreads: the role of counterparty risk," 2009 Meeting Papers 929, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Heider, Florian & Hoerova, Marie & Holthausen, Cornelia, 2009. "Liquidity hoarding and interbank market spreads: the role of counterparty risk," Working Paper Series 1126, European Central Bank.
- Adam Ashcraft & James Mcandrews & David Skeie, 2011.
"Precautionary Reserves and the Interbank Market,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43, pages 311-348, October.
- Thomas J. Sargent & Riccardo Colacito & Lars P. Hansen & Timothy Cogley, 2008. "Robustness and US Monetary," 2008 Meeting Papers 228, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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