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The origins of bubbles in laboratory asset markets

Author

Listed:
  • Lucy F. Ackert
  • Narat Charupat
  • Richard Deaves
  • Brian D. Kluger

Abstract

In twelve sessions conducted in a typical bubble-generating experimental environment, we design a pair of assets that can detect both irrationality and speculative behavior. The specific form of irrationality we investigate is probability judgment error associated with low-probability, high-payoff outcomes. Independently, we test for speculation by comparing prices of identically paying assets in multiperiod versus single-period markets. When these tests indicate the presence of probability judgment error and speculation, bubbles are more likely to occur. This finding suggests that both factors are important bubble drivers.

Suggested Citation

  • Lucy F. Ackert & Narat Charupat & Richard Deaves & Brian D. Kluger, 2006. "The origins of bubbles in laboratory asset markets," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2006-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:2006-06
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Lucy Ackert & Narat Charupat & Bryan Church & Richard Deaves, 2006. "An experimental examination of the house money effect in a multi-period setting," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 9(1), pages 5-16, April.
    3. Lei, Vivian & Noussair, Charles N & Plott, Charles R, 2001. "Nonspeculative Bubbles in Experimental Asset Markets: Lack of Common Knowledge of Rationality vs. Actual Irrationality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(4), pages 831-859, July.
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    7. Lucy F. Ackert & Bryan K. Church, 1998. "The effects of subject pool and design experience on rationality in experimental asset markets," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 98-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    8. Porter, David P & Smith, Vernon L, 1995. "Futures Contracting and Dividend Uncertainty in Experimental Asset Markets," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(4), pages 509-541, October.
    9. Brian D. Kluger & Steve B. Wyatt, 2004. "Are Judgment Errors Reflected in Market Prices and Allocations? Experimental Evidence Based on the Monty Hall Problem," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(3), pages 969-998, June.
    10. Williams, Arlington W., 2008. "Price Bubbles in Large Financial Asset Markets," Handbook of Experimental Economics Results, in: Charles R. Plott & Vernon L. Smith (ed.), Handbook of Experimental Economics Results, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 29, pages 242-246, Elsevier.
    11. Uri Gneezy & Arie Kapteyn & Jan Potters, 2003. "Evaluation Periods and Asset Prices in a Market Experiment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(2), pages 821-838, April.
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    14. Lucy F. Ackert & Narat Charupat & Bryan K. Church & Richard Deaves, 2006. "Margin, Short Selling, And Lotteries In Experimental Asset Markets," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 73(2), pages 419-436, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Nuzzo, Simone & Morone, Andrea, 2017. "Asset markets in the lab: A literature review," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 42-50.
    2. Baghestanian, Sascha & Walker, Todd B., 2015. "Anchoring in experimental asset markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 15-25.
    3. Moinas, Sophie & Pouget, Sébastien, 2009. "Rational and Irrational Bubbles: an Experiment," TSE Working Papers 09-045, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    4. Moinas, Sophie & Pouget, Sébastien, 2009. "The Bubble Game : An experimental Study of Speculation (An earlier version of this paper was circulated under the title "The Rational and Irrational Bubbles : an Experiment")," IDEI Working Papers 560, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse, revised Jan 2012.
    5. Baghestanian, S. & Lugovskyy, V. & Puzzello, D., 2015. "Traders’ heterogeneity and bubble-crash patterns in experimental asset markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 82-101.

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