The Bubble Game : An experimental Study of Speculation (An earlier version of this paper was circulated under the title "The Rational and Irrational Bubbles : an Experiment")
This paper proposes a theory of rational bubbles in an economy with finite trading opportunities. Bubbles arise because agents are never sure to be last in the market sequence. This theory is used to design an experimental setting in which bubbles can be made rational or irrational by varying one parameter. This complements the experimental literature on irrational bubbles initiated by Smith, Suchanek and Williams (1988). Our experimental results suggest that it is pretty difficult to coordinate on rational bubbles even in an environment where irrational bubbles flourish. Maximum likelihood estimations show that these results can be reconciled within the context of Camerer, Ho, and Chong (2004)'s cognitive hierarchy model, and Mc Kelvey and Palfrey (1995)'s quantal response equilibrium.
|Date of creation:||May 2009|
|Date of revision:||Jan 2012|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Manufacture des Tabacs, Aile Jean-Jacques Laffont, 21 Allée de Brienne, 31000 TOULOUSE|
Phone: +33 (0)5 61 12 85 89
Fax: + 33 (0)5 61 12 86 37
Web page: http://www.idei.fr/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Dulleck, Uwe & Oechssler, Jorg, 1997.
"The absent-minded centipede,"
Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 309-315, September.
- U. Dulleck & J. Oechssler, 1996. "The Absent-Minded Centipede," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1996,98, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
- Tirole, Jean, 1982. "On the Possibility of Speculation under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1163-1181, September.
- repec:feb:framed:0074 is not listed on IDEAS
- Huck, Steffen & Jehiel, Philippe & Rutter, Tom, 2011. "Feedback spillover and analogy-based expectations: A multi-game experiment," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 351-365, March.
- Steffen Huck & Philippe Jehiel & Tom Rutter, 2011. "Feedback Spillover and Analogy-based Expectations. A Multi-Game Experiment," Post-Print halshs-00754551, HAL.
- Lei, Vivian & Noussair, Charles N & Plott, Charles R, 2001. "Nonspeculative Bubbles in Experimental Asset Markets: Lack of Common Knowledge of Rationality vs. Actual Irrationality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(4), pages 831-859, July.
- Lei, V. & Noussair, C. & Plott, C.R., 1998. "Non-Speculative Bubbles in Experimental Asset Markets: Lack of Common Knowledge of Rationality Vs. Actual Irrationality," Purdue University Economics Working Papers 1120, Purdue University, Department of Economics.
- Jehiel, Philippe, 2005. "Analogy-based expectation equilibrium," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 123(2), pages 81-104, August.
- Philippe Jeniel, 2001. "Analogy-Based Expectation Equilibrium," Economics Working Papers 0003, Institute for Advanced Study, School of Social Science.
- Philippe Jehiel, 2005. "Analogy-Based Expectation Equilibrium," Levine's Bibliography 784828000000000106, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Philippe Jehiel, 2005. "Analogy-based Expectation Equilibrium," Post-Print halshs-00754070, HAL.
- Martin Dufwenberg & Tobias Lindqvist & Evan Moore, 2005. "Bubbles and Experience: An Experiment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(5), pages 1731-1737, December.
- Antonio Doblas‐Madrid, 2012. "A Robust Model of Bubbles With Multidimensional Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(5), pages 1845-1893, 09.
- Rogers, Brian W. & Palfrey, Thomas R. & Camerer, Colin F., 2009. "Heterogeneous quantal response equilibrium and cognitive hierarchies," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 144(4), pages 1440-1467, July.
- Camerer, Colin F. & Palfrey, Thomas R. & Rogers, Brian W., 2006. "Heterogeneous quantal response equilibrium and cognitive hierarchies," Working Papers 1260, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
- Morris, Stephen & Postlewaite, Andrew & Shin, Hyun Song, 1995. "Depth of Knowledge and the Effect of Higher Order Uncertainty," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 6(3), pages 453-467, November.
- Hyun Song Shin & Andrew Postlewaite & Stephen Morris, 1995. "Depth of knowledge and the effect of higher order uncertainty," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 6(3), pages 453-467.
- Brunnermeier, Markus K. & Morgan, John, 2010. "Clock games: Theory and experiments," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 532-550, March.
- Morgan, John, 2004. "Clock Games: Theory and Experiments," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt81m0r0jj, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
- Markus K Brunnermeier & John Morgan, 2004. "Clock Games: Theory and Experiments," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000000401, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Brunnermeier, Markus K & Morgan, John, 2006. "Clock Games: Theory and Experiments," Competition Policy Center, Working Paper Series qt9c11m09n, Competition Policy Center, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
- Vuong, Quang H, 1989. "Likelihood Ratio Tests for Model Selection and Non-nested Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 307-333, March.
- John R. Conlon, 2004. "Simple Finite Horizon Bubbles Robust to Higher Order Knowledge," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(3), pages 927-936, 05.
- Charles Noussair & Stephane Robin & Bernard Ruffieux, 2001. "Price Bubbles in Laboratory Asset Markets with Constant Fundamental Values," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 4(1), pages 87-105, June.
- Tirole, Jean, 1985. "Asset Bubbles and Overlapping Generations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1499-1528, November.
- Porter, David P & Smith, Vernon L, 1995. "Futures Contracting and Dividend Uncertainty in Experimental Asset Markets," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(4), pages 509-541, October.
- Nalebuff, Barry, 1989. "The Other Person's Envelope Is Always Greener," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(1), pages 171-181, Winter.
- Allen F. & Morris S. & Postlewaite A., 1993. "Finite Bubbles with Short Sale Constraints and Asymmetric Information," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 206-229, December.
- Camerer, Colin, 1989. " Bubbles and Fads in Asset Prices," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(1), pages 3-41.
- Blanchard, Olivier Jean, 1979. "Speculative bubbles, crashes and rational expectations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 387-389.
- Glenn W Harrison & John A List & Charles Towe, 2007. "Naturally Occurring Preferences and Exogenous Laboratory Experiments: A Case Study of Risk Aversion," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(2), pages 433-458, 03.
- Glenn Harrison & John List & Charles Towe, 2004. "Naturally occurring preferences and exogenous laboratory experiments: A case study of risk aversion," Framed Field Experiments 00155, The Field Experiments Website.
- Philippe Weil, 1987. "Confidence and the Real Value of Money in an Overlapping Generations Economy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 102(1), pages 1-22.
- Charles A. Holt & Susan K. Laury, 2002. "Risk Aversion and Incentive Effects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1644-1655, December.
- Van Boening, Mark V. & Williams, Arlington W. & LaMaster, Shawn, 1993. "Price bubbles and crashes in experimental call markets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 179-185.
- Sophie Moinas & Sebastien Pouget, 2013. "The Bubble Game: An Experimental Study of Speculation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(4), pages 1507-1539, 07.
- Sophie Moinas & Sébastien Pouget, 2013. "The Bubble Game: An Experimental Study of Speculation," Post-Print halshs-00862395, HAL.
- Lucy F. Ackert & Narat Charupat & Richard Deaves & Brian D. Kluger, 2006. "The origins of bubbles in laboratory asset markets," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2006-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- repec:dau:papers:123456789/5361 is not listed on IDEAS
- Franklin Allen & Gary Gorton, 1993. "Churning Bubbles," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 60(4), pages 813-836.
- Smith, Vernon L & Suchanek, Gerry L & Williams, Arlington W, 1988. "Bubbles, Crashes, and Endogenous Expectations in Experimental Spot Asset Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(5), pages 1119-1151, September. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ide:wpaper:9600. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.