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Employment growth and labor force participation: how many jobs are enough?

  • Julie L. Hotchkiss

This paper demonstrates that, because of declining labor force participation rates, the usual estimates of job creation needed to keep unemployment in check are too high. It is estimated that only 98,000 jobs (rather than the usual goal of 150,000 jobs) need to be created per month to absorb the growing labor force. As the population ages, the labor force will grow even more slowly, and the number of jobs that need to be created will decline. This paper explores the potential implication of this decline in labor force growth on total output along with potential sources of replacement labor to fuel desired growth in the gross domestic product (GDP).

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta in its series FRB Atlanta Working Paper with number 2004-25.

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Date of creation: 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:2004-25
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  1. J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz & Vincenzo Galasso, 2003. "Early Retirement," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(1), pages 12-36, January.
  2. Jonathan Gruber & David Wise, 1997. "Social Security Programs and Retirement Around the World: Introduction and Summary of Papers by..," NBER Working Papers 6134, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. H. Naci Mocan & Stephen C. Billups & Jody Overland, 2005. "A Dynamic Model of Differential Human Capital and Criminal Activity," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 72(288), pages 655-681, November.
  4. repec:fda:fdaddt:2003-03 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. Courtney Coile & Jonathan Gruber, 2000. "Social Security and Retirement," NBER Working Papers 7830, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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