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L’(absence d’) impact de l’impact : pourquoi les évaluations d’impact conduisent rarement à une prise de décision politique fondée sur les faits

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  • Jean-Louis ARCAND

    (Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement de Genève)

Abstract

Une question récurrente qui déroute plusieurs chercheurs et certains responsables politiques est celle de savoir pourquoi les évaluations d’impact, qui sont devenues monnaie courante dans le domaine du développement, ont si peu d’impact sur la prise de décision à proprement parler. Dans cet article, j’étudie l’impact des évaluations d’impact. Je fais appel à un cadre bayésien simple emboîté dans un modèle standard reposant sur une fonction de « contest success ». Avec ce modèle de concurrence entre des décideurs anti-évaluation, des décideurs bayésiens et des évaluateurs fréquentistes, je montre que la probabilité d’annulation d’un programme est une fonction décroissante de l’impact estimé par l’évaluation et de la croyance a priori sur la base de laquelle le programme a été initialement approuvé. En outre, la probabilité d’annulation est une fonction décroissante de l’efficacité de l’influence exercée par les évaluateurs fréquentistes. Dans la mesure où il est fort probable que cette efficacité en termes de lobbying des évaluateurs fréquentistes soit proche de zéro dans la vraie vie, la probabilité d’annulation d’un programme qui avait été approuvé au départ, bien qu’il soit entaché d’une évaluation très négative, est extrêmement faible. Le modèle fournit ainsi une explication possible de la raison pour laquelle les évaluations d’impact ont si peu d’impact sur la prise de décision, et pourquoi elles ont si peu contribué à la prise de décision fondée sur les faits.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Louis ARCAND, 2013. "L’(absence d’) impact de l’impact : pourquoi les évaluations d’impact conduisent rarement à une prise de décision politique fondée sur les faits," Working Papers P73, FERDI.
  • Handle: RePEc:fdi:wpaper:466
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Geweke, John, 2001. "A note on some limitations of CRRA utility," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 71(3), pages 341-345, June.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • D04 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Microeconomic Policy: Formulation; Implementation; Evaluation
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games

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