Spain, Japan, and the Dangers of Early Fiscal Tightening
Spain's current recession was preceded by an extended period of rapid growth in real estate and equity prices. The recent sudden and sharp decline in these asset prices has been followed by a deep economic contraction. Is this recession a large but transient phenomenon? Or is it perhaps instead the harbinger of a protracted period of depressed asset prices and economic stagnation? Japan experienced a similar pattern of growth in land and equity prices in the late 1980s. The collapse of the Japanese bubble economy was followed by a protracted period of declines in asset prices and depressed economic activity. We compare Japan's experience in the 1980s and 1990s with current developments in Spain. One message that emerges from this narrative is that a fiscal tightening in Japan in 1997 may have been premature. We develop a prototypical New Keynesian model, calibrate it to replicate the Japan's experience in the 1980s and 1990s, and use it to evaluate the risks of tightening fiscal policy too early when the nominal interest rate is low. We find that a premature fiscal tightening can have large and negative effects on the real economy.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2010.
"When is the government spending multiplier large?,"
CQER Working Paper
2010-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Selahattin Imrohoroglu & Ayse Imrohoroglu & Kaiji Chen, 2006. "The Japanese Saving Rate," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1850-1858, December.
- R. Anton Braun & Daisuke Ikeda & Douglas H. Joines, 2007.
"The Saving Rate in Japan: Why It Has Fallen and Why It Will Remain Low,"
CIRJE-F-535, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
- R. Anton Braun & Daisuke Ikeda & Douglas H. Joines, 2009. "The Saving Rate In Japan: Why It Has Fallen And Why It Will Remain Low," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(1), pages 291-321, 02.
- Douglas H. Joines & R.Anton Braun & Daisuke Ikeda, 2008. "The saving rate in Japan: Why it has fallen and why it will remain low," CARF F-Series CARF-F-117, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
- Rotemberg, Julio J., 1996.
"Prices, output, and hours: An empirical analysis based on a sticky price model,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 505-533, June.
- Julio J. Rotemberg, 1994. "Prices, Output and Hours: An Empirical Analysis Based on a Sticky Price Model," NBER Working Papers 4948, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Barro, Robert J, 1981.
"Output Effects of Government Purchases,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(6), pages 1086-1121, December.
- Robert E. Hall, 1977. "Investment, Interest Rates, and the Effects of Stabilization Policies," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 8(1), pages 61-122.
- Kaiji Chen & Ayse Imrohoroglu & Selo Imrohoroglu, 2005.
"Japanese Saving Rate,"
- R. Anton Braun & Yuichiro Waki, 2005.
"Monetary Policy during Japan's Lost Decade,"
CARF-F-035, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fda:fdaddt:2010-14. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Carmen Arias)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.