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Fiscal space in the euro area before Covid-19

Author

Listed:
  • Jérôme Creel

    (OFCE Sciences Po and ESCP Business School)

Abstract

Numerical simulations of fiscal space in the euro area, based on 12 different situations, point to the large uncertainty surrounding the capacity of Member States to pay back their public debts. Debt sustainability appears to depend crucially on long-term nominal interest rate being lower than nominal growth for a long period. Only in this case do major European countries experience some additional fiscal space. Although the analytics behind this exercise is common knowledge among macroeconomists, it gives an order of the magnitude of fiscal space in the euro area and it confirms that interactions between the ECB and governments are key to escape the public finances consequences of an exogenous global shock like Covid-19.

Suggested Citation

  • Jérôme Creel, 2020. "Fiscal space in the euro area before Covid-19," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2020-17, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    • Handle: RePEc:fce:doctra:2017
    as

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    File URL: http://www.ofce.sciences-po.fr/pdf/dtravail/OFCEWP2020-17.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Olivier Blanchard, 2019. "Public Debt and Low Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(4), pages 1197-1229, April.
    2. Jérôme Creel & Henri Sterdyniak, 1995. "Les déficits publics en Europe. Causes, conséquences ou remèdes à la crise ?," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 46(3), pages 645-656.
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    5. Pierre Aldama & Jérôme Creel, 2016. "Why fiscal regimes matter for fiscal sustainability analysis: an application to France," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03459336, HAL.
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    7. Kose, M. Ayhan & Kurlat, Sergio & Ohnsorge, Franziska & Sugawara, Naotaka, 2022. "A cross-country database of fiscal space," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    8. Olivier J Blanchard, 2019. "Public Debt: Fiscal and Welfare Costs in a Time of Low Interest Rates," Policy Briefs PB19-2, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    9. Pierre Aldama & Jérôme Creel, 2020. "Why Fiscal Regimes Matter for Fiscal Sustainability," Working papers 769, Banque de France.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal policy; public debt; fiscal deficit; Covid-19.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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