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Prélèvement à la source de l'impot sur le revenu et année de transition : quel impact pour les finances publiques et l'équité fiscale ?

Author

Listed:
  • Gilles Le Garrec

    (OFCE-Sciences Po)

  • Vincent Touzé

    (OFCE-Sciences Po)

Abstract

Le passage au prélèvement à la source de l’impôt sur le revenu en 2018 en France pose deux difficultés. D’abord, puisque les impôts prélevés en 2017 le seront sur la base des revenus 2016 et ceux de l’année 2018 sur ceux de l’année 2018, les revenus 2017 pourraient ne pas être fiscalisés, laissant ainsi place à une « année blanche » . Ensuite, les contribuables perdraient l’avantage du paiement de l.’impôt avec une année de décalage, caractérisant ainsi une hausse implicite d’impôt. Dans cet article, nous évaluons différentes options de la réforme selon le traitement spécifique des deux points soulignés. Si l’année 2017 n’est effectivement pas .fiscalisée mais que la hausse implicite est neutralisée, nous montrons que la réforme se traduirait par une perte fiscale pour l’Etat de l’ordre de 75 milliards d’euros. A l’inverse, si l’année blanche est bien accompagnée de la hausse fiscale, alors l.’ Etat verrait ses rentrées fiscales totales augmenter relativement au taux de croissance nominal de l’économie. Pour ce qui est des contribuables, nous montrons que quelque soient les modalités de la réforme, cette dernière aboutirait à un impact inégalitaire, toujours en faveur des générations les plus âgés au détriment des nouveaux et potentiellement des futurs contribuables. Nous proposons une procédure qui permettrait de neutraliser l’effet générationnel inéquitable associé au passage au prélèvement à la source.

Suggested Citation

  • Gilles Le Garrec & Vincent Touzé, 2016. "Prélèvement à la source de l'impot sur le revenu et année de transition : quel impact pour les finances publiques et l'équité fiscale ?," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2016-28, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    • Handle: RePEc:fce:doctra:1628
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • H24 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt

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