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Research & Development and Long-Term Economic Growth: A Bayesian Model Averaging Analysis

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Abstract

We examine the effect of research and development (R&D) on long-term economic growth using the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to deal rigorously with model uncertainty. Previous empirical studies investigated the effect of dozens of regressors on long-term growth, but they did not examine the effect of R&D due to data unavailability. We extend these studies by proposing to capture the R&D intensity by the number of Nobel prizes in science. Using our indicator, our estimates show that R&D exerts a positive effect on long-term growth with posterior inclusion probability of 0.25 using our preferred parameter and model priors.

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  • Roman Horváth, 2011. "Research & Development and Long-Term Economic Growth: A Bayesian Model Averaging Analysis," Working Papers IES 2011/19, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jun 2011.
    • Handle: RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2011_19
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    1. Xavier Sala-I-Martin & Gernot Doppelhofer & Ronald I. Miller, 2004. "Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 813-835, September.
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    1. Abida Hafeez & Karim Bux Shah Syed & Fiza Qureshi, 2019. "Exploring the Relationship between Government R & D Expenditures and Economic Growth in a Global Perspective: A PMG Estimation Approach," International Business Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 12(4), pages 163-174, April.
    2. Acheampong, Alex O. & Dzator, Janet & Dzator, Michael & Salim, Ruhul, 2022. "Unveiling the effect of transport infrastructure and technological innovation on economic growth, energy consumption and CO2 emissions," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    3. Niu, Linlin & Xu, Xiu & Chen, Ying, 2017. "An adaptive approach to forecasting three key macroeconomic variables for transitional China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 201-213.
    4. Ulger, Ozlem & Uçan, Okyay, 2018. "R&D expenditures - growth nexus in Turkey," MPRA Paper 91060, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Balázs Égert, 2016. "Regulation, Institutions, and Productivity: New Macroeconomic Evidence from OECD Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(5), pages 109-113, May.
    6. Raetskiy, A. & Tereshchenko, D., 2025. "Economic growth and R&D investment: An empirical analysis of Russian regions," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 67(2), pages 46-64.
    7. Zafar, Muhammad Wasif & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Hou, Fujun & Sinha, Avik, 2018. "¬¬¬¬¬¬From Nonrenewable to Renewable Energy and Its Impact on Economic Growth: Silver Line of Research & Development Expenditures in APEC Countries," MPRA Paper 90611, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Dec 2018.
    8. Marcin Błażejowski & Jacek Kwiatkowski & Jakub Gazda, 2019. "Sources of Economic Growth: A Global Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-14, January.
    9. Yuri S. Popkov & Yuri A. Dubnov & Alexey Yu. Popkov, 2016. "New Method of Randomized Forecasting Using Entropy-Robust Estimation: Application to the World Population Prediction," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 4(1), pages 1-16, March.
    10. Balázs Egert, 2017. "The Impact Of Regulations And Institutions On Multi-Factor Productivity: New Evidence From Macroeconomic Estimates," Working Papers hal-04141653, HAL.
    11. Begüm Erdil Şahin, 2015. "The Relationship Between R&D Expenditures and Economic Growth: Panel Data Analysis 1990-2013," EY International Congress on Economics II (EYC2015), November 5-6, 2015, Ankara, Turkey 207, Ekonomik Yaklasim Association.
    12. Chandrashekar Raghutla & Krishna Reddy Chittedi, 2021. "Financial development, real sector and economic growth: Evidence from emerging market economies," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 6156-6167, October.
    13. Mehmet Balcilar & Ojonugwa Usman & George N. Ike, 2023. "Investing green for sustainable development without ditching economic growth," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(2), pages 728-743, April.
    14. Lucchetti, Riccardo & Pedini, Luca & Pigini, Claudia, 2022. "No such thing as the perfect match: Bayesian Model Averaging for treatment evaluation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    15. John Inekwe, 2015. "The Contribution of R&D Expenditure to Economic Growth in Developing Economies," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 124(3), pages 727-745, December.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • O30 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - General
    • O32 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Management of Technological Innovation and R&D
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

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