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Synchronization and the Coupled Oscillator Model in International Business Cycles

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  • Yuichi IKEDA
  • Hideaki AOYAMA
  • Hiroshi YOSHIKAWA

Abstract

Synchronization in international business cycles attracts economists and physicists as an example of self-organization in the time domain. In economics, synchronization of the business cycles has been discussed using correlation coefficients between gross domestic product (GDP) time series. However, more definitive discussions using a suitable quantity describing the business cycles are needed. In this paper, we analyze the quarterly GDP time series for Australia, Canada, France, Italy, the United Kingdom, and the United States from Q2 1960 to Q1 2010 in order to obtain direct evidence for the synchronization and to clarify its origin. We find frequency entrainment and partial phase locking to be direct evidence of synchronization in international business cycles. Furthermore, a coupled limit-cycle oscillator model is developed to explain the mechanism of synchronization. In this model, the interaction due to international trade is interpreted as the origin of the synchronization.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuichi IKEDA & Hideaki AOYAMA & Hiroshi YOSHIKAWA, 2013. "Synchronization and the Coupled Oscillator Model in International Business Cycles," Discussion papers 13089, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    • Handle: RePEc:eti:dpaper:13089
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Andrew T. Foerster & Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte & Mark W. Watson, 2011. "Sectoral versus Aggregate Shocks: A Structural Factor Analysis of Industrial Production," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(1), pages 1-38.
    2. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2005. "Understanding Changes In International Business Cycle Dynamics," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(5), pages 968-1006, September.
    3. Iyetomi, Hiroshi & Nakayama, Yasuhiro & Yoshikawa, Hiroshi & Aoyama, Hideaki & Fujiwara, Yoshi & Ikeda, Yuichi & Souma, Wataru, 2011. "What causes business cycles? Analysis of the Japanese industrial production data," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 246-272, September.
    4. Yuichi Ikeda & Hideaki Aoyama & Hiroshi Iyetomi & Hiroshi Yoshikawa, 2013. "Direct Evidence for Synchronization in Japanese Business Cycle," Papers 1305.2263, arXiv.org.
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    Cited by:

    1. G. Rigatos & P. Siano & T. Ghosh, 2019. "A Nonlinear Optimal Control Approach to Stabilization of Business Cycles of Finance Agents," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 53(3), pages 1111-1131, March.

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