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A Probabilistic Modeling Approach to the Detection of Industrial Agglomerations

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  • Tomoya MORI
  • Tony E. SMITH

Abstract

Dating from the seminal work of Ellison and Glaeser [7] in 1997, a wealth of evidence for the ubiquity of industrial agglomerations has been published. However, most of these results are based on analyses of single (scalar) indices of agglomeration. Hence, it is not surprising that industries deemed to be similar by such indices can often exhibit very different patterns of agglomeration—with respect to the number, size, and spatial extent of individual agglomerations. The purpose of this paper is thus to propose a more detailed spatial analysis of agglomeration in terms of multiple-cluster patterns, where each cluster represents a (roughly) convex set of contiguous regions within which the density of establishments is relatively uniform. The key idea is to develop a simple probability model of multiple clusters, called cluster schemes, and then to seek a "best" cluster scheme for each industry by employing a standard model-selection criterion. Our ultimate objective is to provide a richer characterization of spatial agglomeration patterns that will allow more meaningful comparisons of these patterns across industries.

Suggested Citation

  • Tomoya MORI & Tony E. SMITH, 2013. "A Probabilistic Modeling Approach to the Detection of Industrial Agglomerations," Discussion papers 13013, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    • Handle: RePEc:eti:dpaper:13013
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Tomoya Mori & Tony E. Smith, 2014. "A probabilistic modeling approach to the detection of industrial agglomerations," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(3), pages 547-588.
    2. Julian Besag & James Newell, 1991. "The Detection of Clusters in Rare Diseases," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 154(1), pages 143-155, January.
    3. Ellison, Glenn & Glaeser, Edward L, 1997. "Geographic Concentration in U.S. Manufacturing Industries: A Dartboard Approach," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(5), pages 889-927, October.
    4. Gilles Duranton & Henry G. Overman, 2005. "Testing for Localization Using Micro-Geographic Data," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(4), pages 1077-1106.
    5. Tabuchi, Takatoshi & Thisse, Jacques-François, 2011. "A new economic geography model of central places," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 240-252, March.
    6. Ikeda, Kiyohiro & Akamatsu, Takashi & Kono, Tatsuhito, 2012. "Spatial period-doubling agglomeration of a core–periphery model with a system of cities," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 754-778.
    7. Tomoya Mori & Koji Nishikimi & Tony E. Smith, 2005. "A Divergence Statistic for Industrial Localization," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 635-651, November.
    8. Brulhart, Marius & Traeger, Rolf, 2005. "An account of geographic concentration patterns in Europe," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 597-624, November.
    9. J. V. Henderson & J. F. Thisse (ed.), 2004. "Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 4, number 4.
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    Cited by:

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    3. de Bellefon, Marie-Pierre & Combes, Pierre-Philippe & Duranton, Gilles & Gobillon, Laurent & Gorin, Clément, 2021. "Delineating urban areas using building density," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    4. Gokan, Toshitaka & Kuroiwa, Ikuo & Nakajima, Kentaro & Sakata, Shozo, 2016. "Spatial patterns of manufacturing clusters in Vietnam," IDE Discussion Papers 616, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    5. Dai, Tianran & Schiff, Nathan, 2023. "The structure and growth of ethnic neighborhoods," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    6. Mori, Tomoya & Smith, Tony E., 2015. "On the spatial scale of industrial agglomerations," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 1-20.
    7. Gerald A. Carlino & Jake Carr & Robert M. Hunt & Tony E. Smith, 2010. "The agglomeration of R&D labs," Working Papers 10-33, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    8. Smirnova, Ekaterina & Khormali, Omid & Egan, Joel M., 2019. "Functional analysis of spatial aggregation regions of Jeffrey pine beetle-attack within the Lake Tahoe Basin," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 57-62.
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    11. Wrona, Jens, 2015. "Border effects without borders: What divides Japan's internal trade?," DICE Discussion Papers 185, Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE).
    12. Gabriel Lang & Eric Marcon & Florence Puech, 2019. "Distance-Based Measures Of Spatial Concentration: Introducing A Relative Density Function," Working Papers hal-01082178, HAL.
    13. Toshitaka GOKAN & Ikuo KUROIWA & Nuttawut LAKSANAPANYAKUL & Yasushi UEKI, 2015. "Spatial Patterns of Manufacturing Agglomeration in Cambodia, Lao People’s Democratic Republic, and Thailand," Working Papers DP-2015-68, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    14. Gabriel Lang & Eric Marcon & Florence Puech, 2020. "Distance-based measures of spatial concentration: introducing a relative density function," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 64(2), pages 243-265, April.
    15. Gokan, Toshitaka & Kuroiwa, Ikuo & Laksanapanyakul, Nuttawut & Ueki, Yasushi, 2016. "Spatial structures of manufacturing clusters in Cambodia, Lao People's Democratic Republic, and Thailand," IDE Discussion Papers 617, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    16. Wenwen Wang & Muqing Sun & Dong Zhou, 2025. "The impact of cross-border e-commerce comprehensive pilot zone on corporate financial constraints in China," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 12(1), pages 1-14, December.
    17. Gokan, Toshitaka & Kuroiwa, Ikuo & Nakajima, Kentaro, 2019. "Agglomeration economies in Vietnam: A firm-level analysis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 52-64.
    18. Tomoya Mori & Tony E. Smith, 2011. "An Industrial Agglomeration Approach To Central Place And City Size Regularities," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(4), pages 694-731, October.
    19. Kossowski Tomasz & Hauke Jan, 2018. "SPAG: A New Measure of Spatial Agglomeration. Theoretical Background and Empirical Examples," Quaestiones Geographicae, Sciendo, vol. 37(4), pages 33-42, December.
    20. Jens Wrona, 2018. "Border Effects Without Borders: What Divides Japan's Internal Trade?," CESifo Working Paper Series 7056, CESifo.
    21. Tomoya Mori & Tony E. Smith, 2014. "A probabilistic modeling approach to the detection of industrial agglomerations," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(3), pages 547-588.
    22. Takashi Akamatsu & Tomoya Mori & Minoru Osawa & Yuki Takayama, 2017. "Spatial Scale of Agglomeration and Dispersion: Theoretical Foundations and Empirical Implications," KIER Working Papers 974, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    23. Zhang, Lin & He, Xiaoxia & Jia, Zhenli, 2023. "Industrial agglomeration, public services and city size: Evidence from 286 cities in China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C49 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Other
    • L60 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - General
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
    • R14 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Land Use Patterns

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