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Effectiveness of Credit Guarantees in the Japanese Loan Market

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  • Iichiro Uesugi
  • Koji Sakai
  • Guy M. Yamashiro

Abstract

From 1998-2001, the Japanese government, in an effort to stimulate the flow of funds to the small business sector, implemented a massive credit guarantee program that was unprecedented in both scale and scope. Because the program was accessible by nearly every small firm we are able to clearly identify the policy effect. The program, therefore, presents a unique opportunity to determine if government intervention can improve the efficiency of credit allocation among bank-dependent small businesses. Utilizing a new panel data set of Japanese firms, which covers the implementation period of the program, we empirically test the theoretical predictions of Mankiw's (1986) adverse selection model. The model of credit markets under asymmetric information allows us to investigate whether government credit programs do more to stimulate small business investment, or serve to worsen the adverse selection problems prevalent in credit markets. We find evidence consistent with the former hypothesis. Specifically, we find that (1) program participants significantly increase their leverage, especially their use of long-term loans, and (2) with the exception of high-risk firms, become more efficient.

Suggested Citation

  • Iichiro Uesugi & Koji Sakai & Guy M. Yamashiro, 2006. "Effectiveness of Credit Guarantees in the Japanese Loan Market," Discussion papers 06004, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
  • Handle: RePEc:eti:dpaper:06004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. William G. Gale, 1990. "Collateral, Rationing, and Government Intervention in Credit Markets," NBER Chapters,in: Asymmetric Information, Corporate Finance, and Investment, pages 43-62 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    4. Ben R. Craig & William E. Jackson & James B. Thomson, 2005. "SBA-loan guarantees and local economic growth," Working Paper 0503, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    5. Williamson, Stephen D, 1994. "Do Informational Frictions Justify Federal Credit Programs?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 26(3), pages 523-544, August.
    6. Gale, William G, 1991. "Economic Effects of Federal Credit Programs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 133-152, March.
    7. Cowling, Marc & Mitchell, Peter, 2003. "Is the Small Firms Loan Guarantee Scheme Hazardous for Banks or Helpful to Small Business?," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 63-71, August.
    8. Bruce D. Smith & Michael J. Stutzer, 1989. "Credit Rationing and Government Loan Programs: A Welfare Analysis," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 17(2), pages 177-193.
    9. Chaney, Paul K. & Thakor, Anjan V., 1985. "Incentive effects of benevolent intervention : The case of government loan guarantees," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 169-189, March.
    10. MATSUURA Katsumi & HORI Masahiro, 2003. "Special Credit Guarantee and Restructuring of Small Firms(in Japanese)," ESRI Discussion paper series 050, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    11. Gale, William G., 1990. "Federal lending and the market for credit," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 177-193, July.
    12. Wenli Li, 1998. "Government loan, guarantee, and grant programs: an evaluation," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Fall, pages 25-52.
    13. N. Gregory Mankiw, 1986. "The Allocation of Credit and Financial Collapse," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 101(3), pages 455-470.
    14. Varouj Aivazian & Dipak Mazumdar & Eric Santor, 2003. "Financial Constraints and Investment: Assessing the Impact of a World Bank Loan Program on Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises in Sri Lanka," Staff Working Papers 03-37, Bank of Canada.
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    Cited by:

    1. Murtaza H Syed & Jinsook Lee, 2010. "Japan’s Quest for Growth; Exploring the Role of Capital and innovation," IMF Working Papers 10/294, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Arping, Stefan & Lóránth, Gyöngyi & Morrison, Alan D., 2010. "Public initiatives to support entrepreneurs: Credit guarantees versus co-funding," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 26-35, April.
    3. Karel Janda, 2011. "Credit Rationing and Public Support of Commercial Credit," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp436, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    4. Karel Janda, 2011. "Credit Guarantees and Subsidies when Lender has a Market Power," Working Papers IES 2011/18, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jun 2011.
    5. Uesugi, Iichiro, 2008. "Efficiency of Credit Allocation and Effectiveness of Government Credit Guarantees: Evidence from Japanese Small Businesses," PIE/CIS Discussion Paper 353, Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.

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