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A Model for Forecasting Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Ireland

Author

Listed:
  • John FitzGerald

    (Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI))

  • Jonathan Hore
  • Ide Kearney

    (Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI))

Abstract

This paper briefly outlines the methodology used to develop a new model of energy demand. It contains a description of the model equations used to determine the sectoral demand for energy. It details the set of engineering relationships in the electricity generation block, while then detailing the determination of carbon dioxide (CO2) emission levels. It then outlines the links between this energy model and the main HERMES macroeconomic model. It looks at the performance of the energy model within sample, and contains some preliminary estimates of the links between energy prices and taxes and the level of carbon dioxide emissions. Appendix 1 details the notation used in the databank, while Appendix 2 lists the full set of equations included in the current version of the energy model.

Suggested Citation

  • John FitzGerald & Jonathan Hore & Ide Kearney, 2002. "A Model for Forecasting Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Ireland," Papers WP146, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  • Handle: RePEc:esr:wpaper:wp146
    as

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    File URL: http://www.esri.ie/pubs/WP0146%20A%20Model%20for%20Forecasting.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2002
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Conniffe, Denis & McCoy, Daniel, 1993. "Energy Elasticity Estimates and the Stability of the Relationship with GDP," Book Chapters,in: FitzGerald, John (ed.), Issues in Irish Energy Policy Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    2. Bergin, Adele & Cullen, Joe & Duffy, David & FitzGerald, John & Kearney, Ide & McCoy, Daniel, 2003. "Medium-Term Review 2003-2010, No. 9," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number MTR09.
    3. Duffy, David & FitzGerald, John & Kearney, Ide & Smyth, Diarmaid, 1999. "Medium-Term Review 1999-2005, No. 7," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number MTR07.
    4. Conniffe, Denis & Scott, Susan, 1990. "Energy Elasticities: Responsiveness of Demands for Fuels to Income and Price Changes," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number GRS149.
    5. John FitzGerald, 2000. "Energy Demand to 2015," Papers WP136, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    6. Haas, Reinhard & Schipper, Lee, 1998. "Residential energy demand in OECD-countries and the role of irreversible efficiency improvements," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 421-442, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. FitzGerald, John & Bergin, Adele & Conefrey, Thomas & Diffney, Sean & Duffy, David & Kearney, Ide & Lyons, Sean & Malaguzzi Valeri, Laura & Mayor, Karen & Richard S. J. Tol, 2008. "Medium-Term Review 2008-2015, No. 11," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number MTR11.
    2. Legge, Thomas & Scott, Susan, 2009. "Policy Options to Reduce Ireland's Greenhouse Gas Emissions," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS9.
    3. Hugh Hennessy & Richard S. J. Tol, 2011. "The Impact of Government Policy on Private Car Ownership in Ireland," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 42(2), pages 135-157.
    4. Hennessy, Hugh & Tol, Richard S. J., 2010. "The Impact of Climate Policy on Private Car Ownership in Ireland," Papers WP342, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    5. Lee, Timothy & Yao, Runming, 2013. "Incorporating technology buying behaviour into UK-based long term domestic stock energy models to provide improved policy analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 363-372.
    6. Curtis, John, 2012. "The Environment Review 2012," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS26.
    7. Legge, Thomas & Scott, Susan, 2009. "Policy Options to Reduce Ireland's GHG Emissions [Instrument choice: the pros and cons of alternative policy instruments]," Papers WP284, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    8. Barrett, Alan & Kearney, Ide & O'Brien, Martin, 2007. "Quarterly Economic Commentary, Winter 2007," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number QEC20074.
    9. Richard S. J. Tol & Seán Lyons, 2008. "Incorporating GHG Emission Costs in the Economic Appraisal of Projects Supported by State Development Agencies," Papers WP247, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    10. Glynn, James & Chiodi, Alessandro & Gargiulo, Maurizio & Deane, J.P. & Bazilian, Morgan & Gallachóir, Brian Ó, 2014. "Energy Security Analysis: The case of constrained oil supply for Ireland," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 312-325.
    11. Tol, Richard S. J., 2007. "Irish Climate Change Policy for 2012: An Assessment," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), vol. 2007(4-Winter), pages 104-117.
    12. Di Cosmo, Valeria & Hyland, Marie, 2013. "Carbon tax scenarios and their effects on the Irish energy sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 404-414.
    13. FitzGerald, John & Keeney, Mary J. & McCarthy, Niamh & O'Malley, Eoin & Scott, Susan, 2005. "Aspects of Irish Energy Policy," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number PRS57.

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