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Incorporating technology buying behaviour into UK-based long term domestic stock energy models to provide improved policy analysis

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  • Lee, Timothy
  • Yao, Runming

Abstract

The UK has a target for an 80% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050 from a 1990 base. Domestic energy use accounts for around 30% of total emissions. This paper presents a comprehensive review of existing models and modelling techniques and indicates how they might be improved by considering individual buying behaviour. Macro (top-down) and micro (bottom-up) models have been reviewed and analysed. It is found that bottom-up models can project technology diffusion due to their higher resolution. The weakness of existing bottom-up models at capturing individual green technology buying behaviour has been identified. Consequently, Markov chains, neural networks and agent-based modelling are proposed as possible methods to incorporate buying behaviour within a domestic energy forecast model. Among the three methods, agent-based models are found to be the most promising, although a successful agent approach requires large amounts of input data. A prototype agent-based model has been developed and tested, which demonstrates the feasibility of an agent approach. This model shows that an agent-based approach is promising as a means to predict the effectiveness of various policy measures.

Suggested Citation

  • Lee, Timothy & Yao, Runming, 2013. "Incorporating technology buying behaviour into UK-based long term domestic stock energy models to provide improved policy analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 363-372.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:52:y:2013:i:c:p:363-372
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2012.09.048
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    3. Hall, Lisa M.H. & Buckley, Alastair R., 2016. "A review of energy systems models in the UK: Prevalent usage and categorisation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 607-628.
    4. Berardi, Umberto, 2013. "Stakeholders’ influence on the adoption of energy-saving technologies in Italian homes," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 520-530.
    5. Hurmekoski, Elias & Hetemäki, Lauri, 2013. "Studying the future of the forest sector: Review and implications for long-term outlook studies," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 17-29.
    6. E. Adinyira & T. E. Kwofie & F. Quarcoo, 2018. "Stakeholder requirements for building energy efficiency in mass housing delivery: the House of Quality approach," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 1115-1131, June.
    7. Luciano C. Siebert & Adriana Sbicca & Alexandre Rasi Aoki & Germano Lambert-Torres, 2017. "A Behavioral Economics Approach to Residential Electricity Consumption," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-18, June.

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