Energy Demand to 2015
This working paper outlines a set of forecasts for the likely development of energy demand in Ireland over the next 15 years. The Central Forecast, based on the ESRI Medium-Term Review: 1999-2006, published last year, represents the scenario that we consider to be the most likely. However, because of the wide range of uncertainty involved in such an exercise, we also describe two other scenarios a high and a low growth scenario. In these two scenarios we have varied the assumptions concerning the likely rate of economic growth in the medium term. In addition, we have also varied some other assumptions relating specifically to the development of the energy sector. The requirement to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases will play a significant role in determining the future growth path of the energy sector. While the recently published government National Climate Strategy report does set out a range of measures to be taken to reduce Irish emissions, the uncertainty about the full implications of policy changes for the energy sector is reflected in the range of assumptions examined in this paper. In undertaking this exercise we have used the ESRIs macro-economic model and a separate simple model of energy demand to consider the effect of varying assumptions about economic growth. We first describe the macro-economic scenarios underlying the forecast for energy demand. We then describe some assumptions relating to the energy sector that are imposed on our model of energy demand. The following sections describe the implications of these assumptions for electricity demand and for the demand for energy from each of the different sectors of the economy: households, commercial and public, industry, and the transport sector. The final section sets out our conclusions.
|Date of creation:||Dec 2000|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Whitaker Square, Sir John Rogerson's Quay, Dublin 2|
Phone: (353-1) 863 2000
Fax: (353-1) 863 2100
Web page: http://www.esri.ie
More information through EDIRC
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:esr:wpaper:wp136. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sarah Burns)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.