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Population Aging, Labor Mobility, and Economic Growth: Evidence From MENA and the Developed World


  • Mehmet Serkan Tosun

    () (College of Business and Economics, West Virginia University)


This paper examines the economic effects of aging trends using a two-period, two-region OLG model and the population projections for the developed and MENA countries. Migrant workers change the political balance of young and elderly voters in both labor-receiving and labor-sending countries. Numerical simulations show that the MENA region benefits more from international capital mobility. Restricting migration or political participation of migrant workers in the developed region produces inferior growth results for the MENA region. The study reveals that the MENA countries would suffer significantly from lower return to education in terms of growth and consumption.

Suggested Citation

  • Mehmet Serkan Tosun, 2004. "Population Aging, Labor Mobility, and Economic Growth: Evidence From MENA and the Developed World," Working Papers 0417, Economic Research Forum, revised 08 May 2004.
  • Handle: RePEc:erg:wpaper:0417

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    6. George Psacharopoulos & Harry Anthony Patrinos, 2004. "Returns to investment in education: a further update," Education Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(2), pages 111-134.
    7. Panu Poutvaara, 2006. "On the political economy of social security and public education," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 19(2), pages 345-365, June.
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    9. Douglas W. Elmendorf & Louise M. Sheiner, 2000. "Should America Save for Its Old Age? Fiscal Policy, Population Aging, and National Saving," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 57-74, Summer.
    10. Kenc, Turalay & Sayan, Serdar, 2001. "Demographic shock transmission from large to small countries: An overlapping generations CGE analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 677-702, August.
    11. David M. Cutler & James M. Poterba & Louise M. Sheiner & Lawrence H. Summers, 1990. "An Aging Society: Opportunity or Challenge?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(1), pages 1-74.
    12. Phillip L Swagel & Efraim Sadka & Assaf Razin, 2002. "The Aging of the Population and the Size of the Welfare State," IMF Working Papers 02/68, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Douglas W. Elmendorf & Louise Sheiner, 2000. "Should America save for its old age? Population aging, national saving, and fiscal policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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    15. World Bank, 2003. "World Development Indicators 2003," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 13920, June.
    16. repec:fth:harver:1490 is not listed on IDEAS
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