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Population Aging, Labor Mobility, and Economic Growth: Evidence From MENA and the Developed World

Listed author(s):
  • Mehmet Serkan Tosun

    ()

    (College of Business and Economics, West Virginia University)

This paper examines the economic effects of aging trends using a two-period, two-region OLG model and the population projections for the developed and MENA countries. Migrant workers change the political balance of young and elderly voters in both labor-receiving and labor-sending countries. Numerical simulations show that the MENA region benefits more from international capital mobility. Restricting migration or political participation of migrant workers in the developed region produces inferior growth results for the MENA region. The study reveals that the MENA countries would suffer significantly from lower return to education in terms of growth and consumption.

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Paper provided by Economic Research Forum in its series Working Papers with number 0417.

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Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: 08 May 2004
Date of revision: 08 May 2004
Publication status: Published by The Economic Research Forum (ERF)
Handle: RePEc:erg:wpaper:0417
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  1. Gradstein, Mark & Kaganovich, Michael, 2004. "Aging population and education finance," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(12), pages 2469-2485, December.
  2. Kjetil Storesletten, 2000. "Sustaining Fiscal Policy through Immigration," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(2), pages 300-323, April.
  3. Buiter, Willem H, 1981. "Time Preference and International Lending and Borrowing in an Overlapping-Generations Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(4), pages 769-797, August.
  4. Assaf Razin & Efraim Sadka & Phillip Swagel, 2002. "The Aging Population and the Size of the Welfare State," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(4), pages 900-918, August.
  5. Paul A. Samuelson, 1958. "An Exact Consumption-Loan Model of Interest with or without the Social Contrivance of Money," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66, pages 467-467.
  6. George Psacharopoulos & Harry Anthony Patrinos, 2004. "Returns to investment in education: a further update," Education Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(2), pages 111-134.
  7. Panu Poutvaara, 2006. "On the political economy of social security and public education," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 19(2), pages 345-365, June.
  8. Bearse, Peter & Glomm, Gerhard & Ravikumar, B., 2000. "On the political economy of means-tested education vouchers," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(4-6), pages 904-915, May.
  9. Douglas W. Elmendorf & Louise M. Sheiner, 2000. "Should America Save for Its Old Age? Fiscal Policy, Population Aging, and National Saving," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 57-74, Summer.
  10. Kenc, Turalay & Sayan, Serdar, 2001. "Demographic shock transmission from large to small countries: An overlapping generations CGE analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 677-702, August.
  11. David M. Cutler & James M. Poterba & Louise M. Sheiner & Lawrence H. Summers, 1990. "An Aging Society: Opportunity or Challenge?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(1), pages 1-74.
  12. Phillip L Swagel & Efraim Sadka & Assaf Razin, 2002. "The Aging of the Population and the Size of the Welfare State," IMF Working Papers 02/68, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Douglas W. Elmendorf & Louise Sheiner, 2000. "Should America save for its old age? Population aging, national saving, and fiscal policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  14. Galor, Oded, 1986. "Time preference and international labor migration," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 1-20, February.
  15. World Bank, 2003. "World Development Indicators 2003," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 13920, April.
  16. repec:fth:harver:1490 is not listed on IDEAS
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