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Política Arancelaria Estratégica en la Guerra Comercial China-Estados Unidos

Author

Listed:
  • Diana Guadalupe Martínez Padilla

    (El Colegio de México)

  • Julen Berasaluce Iza

    (El Colegio de México)

Abstract

We introduce equilibrium indeterminacy into a two-country incomplete asset model with imperfect competition to analyze the role of self-fulfilling expectations or beliefs in explaining international business cycles. We find that when self-fulfilling beliefs are correlated with tecnology shocks, the model can account for the counter-cyclical behavior observed for the terms of trade and real net exports, while simultaneously generating higher volatilities relative to output, as in the data. The choice of the labor supply elasticity is shown to be critical for generating a negative correlation between the real exchange rate and relative consumption, thereby resolving the Backus-Smith puzzle.

Suggested Citation

  • Diana Guadalupe Martínez Padilla & Julen Berasaluce Iza, 2021. "Política Arancelaria Estratégica en la Guerra Comercial China-Estados Unidos," Serie documentos de trabajo del Centro de Estudios Económicos 2021-11, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos.
    • Handle: RePEc:emx:ceedoc:2021-11
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    File URL: https://cee.colmex.mx/dts/2021/DT-2021-11.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Indeterminacy; Sunspots and Self-Fulfilling Expectations; International Business Cycles; Net Exports; Terms of Trade; Consumption-Real Exchange Rate Anomaly; Combined Impulse Responses;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

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