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Updating the Long Term Rate in Time: A Possible Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Petr Jakubik
  • Diana Zigraiova

    (EIOPA)

Abstract

This study proposes the potential methodological approach to be utilized by regulators when setting up a Long-Term Rate (LTR) for the evaluation of insurers’ liabilities beyond the last liquid point observable in the market. Our approach is based on the optimization of two contradictory aspects – stability and accuracy implied by economic fundamentals. We use U.S. Treasury term structure data over the period 1985-2015 to calibrate an algorithm that dynamically revises LTR based on the distance between the value implied by long-term growth of economic fundamentals in a given year and the regulatory value of LTR valid in a year prior. We employ both Nelson-Siegel and Svensson models to extrapolate yields over maturities of 21-30 years employing the selected value of the LTR and compare them to the observed yields using mean square error statistic. Furthermore, we optimise the parameter of the proposed LTR formula by minimising the defined loss function capturing both mentioned factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Petr Jakubik & Diana Zigraiova, 2016. "Updating the Long Term Rate in Time: A Possible Approach," EIOPA Financial Stability Report - Thematic Articles 9, EIOPA, Risks and Financial Stability Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:eio:thafsr:9
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tomas Björk & Bent Jesper Christensen, 1999. "Interest Rate Dynamics and Consistent Forward Rate Curves," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(4), pages 323-348, October.
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    4. Casper Christophersen & Petr Jakubik, 2014. "Insurance and the Macroeconomic Environment," EIOPA Financial Stability Report - Thematic Articles 1, EIOPA, Risks and Financial Stability Department.
    5. Svensson, Lars E O, 1994. "Estimating and Interpreting Forward Interest Rates: Sweden 1992-4," CEPR Discussion Papers 1051, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    8. Coroneo, Laura & Nyholm, Ken & Vidova-Koleva, Rositsa, 2011. "How arbitrage-free is the Nelson-Siegel model?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 393-407, June.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Insurance; Long Term Rate; financial stability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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