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Positively gamma discounting: combining the opinions of experts on the social discount rate

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  • Freeman, Mark C.
  • Groom, Ben

Abstract

The aggregated term structure of social discount rates that results from Weitz-man's (2001) survey of expert opinion is shown to be highly sensitive to the nature of the responses. If variation re.ects irreducible differences in ethical judgements, the term structure can decline rapidly. If variation occurred because respondents were forecasting future rates under uncertainty, the term structure is much flatter because additional experts provide new information. The former approach triples the social cost of carbon when compared to the latter. The distinction between heterogeneity and uncertainty illustrates the need for a nuanced treatment of survey data in intergenerational policy making.

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  • Freeman, Mark C. & Groom, Ben, 2015. "Positively gamma discounting: combining the opinions of experts on the social discount rate," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 57158, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:57158
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Moritz A. Drupp & Frikk Nesje & Robert C. Schmidt & Robert Christian Schmidt, 2022. "Pricing Carbon," CESifo Working Paper Series 9608, CESifo.
    2. Peter Harrison Howard & Derek Sylvan, 2020. "Wisdom of the experts: Using survey responses to address positive and normative uncertainties in climate-economic models," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(2), pages 213-232, September.
    3. Graeme Guthrie, 2021. "Discounting, Disagreement, and the Option to Delay," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 80(1), pages 95-133, September.
    4. Maureen L. Cropper & Yongjoon Park, 2024. "Incorporating Air and Water Pollution into the National Income and Product Accounts," NBER Chapters, in: Measuring and Accounting for Environmental Public Goods: A National Accounts Perspective, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Pindyck, Robert S., 2019. "The social cost of carbon revisited," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 140-160.
    6. Robert S. Pindyck, 2017. "Coase Lecture—Taxes, Targets and the Social Cost of Carbon," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 84(335), pages 345-364, July.
    7. Freeman, Mark C. & Groom, Ben & Panopoulou, Ekaterini & Pantelidis, Theologos, 2015. "Declining discount rates and the Fisher Effect: Inflated past, discounted future?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 32-49.
    8. Moritz A. Drupp & Jasper N. Meya & Björn Bos & Simon Disque, 2024. "Heterogeneous Substitutability Preferences," CESifo Working Paper Series 11197, CESifo.
    9. Gollier, Christian, 2016. "Gamma discounters are short-termist," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 83-90.
    10. Millner, Antony & Heal, Geoffrey, 2018. "Discounting by committee," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 91-104.
    11. Millner, Antony & Healey, Andrew, 2018. "Discounting by committee," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 90246, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    12. Richard S.J. Tol, 2021. "Estimates of the social cost of carbon have not changed over time," Working Paper Series 0821, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    13. Freeman, Mark C. & Groom, Ben, 2016. "How certain are we about the certainty-equivalent longterm social discount rate?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 67258, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    14. Howard, Peter H. & Derek, Sylvan, 2016. "The Wisdom of the Economic Crowd: Calibrating Integrated Assessment Models Using Consensus," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235639, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    15. Márta Somogyvári, 2018. "Ethical Aspects of Intertemporal Discounting and the Social Discount Rate," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 17(3), pages 109-132.
    16. Rafał Buła & Monika Foltyn-Zarychta, 2022. "Declining Discount Rates for Energy Policy Investments in CEE EU Member Countries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-27, December.
    17. Lanlan Luo & Shou Chen & Ziran Zou, 2020. "Determining the Generalized Discount Rate for Risky Projects," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 77(1), pages 143-158, September.
    18. Andersen, Carsten, 2022. "Do distant rent flows matter? Inferring discount rates from leasehold apartments in Denmark," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    19. Richard S. J. Tol, 2021. "Estimates of the social cost of carbon have increased over time," Papers 2105.03656, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2022.

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