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The impact of asymmetric information among competing insurgent groups: estimating an 'emboldenment' effect

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  • Iyengar, Radha

Abstract

This paper uses asymmetric access to information to test if an insurgency is factionalized. If it is factionalized, regional variation in information should influence attack levels as groups use violence to compete over visibility, resources and support. Using plausibly exogenous variation in satellite access, we show that attacks increased after the release of information on satellite television about US commitment to remain in Iraq. Because insurgents shift attacks toward more difficult (military) targets, the relative increase in attacks is offset by fewer total fatalities. Our findings illustrate that insurgent groups may be decentralized strategic actors subject to competitive forces.

Suggested Citation

  • Iyengar, Radha, 2010. "The impact of asymmetric information among competing insurgent groups: estimating an 'emboldenment' effect," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 121728, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:121728
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    File URL: https://researchonline.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/121728/
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    JEL classification:

    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • F52 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - National Security; Economic Nationalism

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