The Impact of Asymmetric Information Among Competing Insurgent Groups: Estimating an 'Emboldenment' Effect
This paper uses asymmetric access to information to test if an insurgency is factionalized. If it is factionalized, regional variation in information should influence attack levels as groups use violence to compete over visibility, resources and support. Using plausibly exogenous variation in satellite access, we show that attacks increased after the release of information on satellite television about US commitment to remain in Iraq. Because insurgents shift attacks toward more difficult (military) targets, the relative increase in attacks is offset by fewer total fatalities. Our findings illustrate that insurgent groups may be decentralized strategic actors subject to competitive forces.
|Date of creation:||Oct 2010|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/publications/series.asp?prog=CEP|
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- Eli Berman & Jacob N. Shapiro & Joseph H. Felter, 2011.
"Can Hearts and Minds Be Bought? The Economics of Counterinsurgency in Iraq,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(4), pages 766-819.
- Eli Berman & Jacob N. Shapiro & Joseph H. Felter, 2008. "Can Hearts and Minds Be Bought? The Economics of Counterinsurgency in Iraq," NBER Working Papers 14606, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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- Eli Berman & David Laitin, 2005. "Hard Targets: Theory and Evidence on Suicide Attacks," NBER Working Papers 11740, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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