Depletion of Natural Resources and Long-term Perspectives of the Russian Economy
A long-term analysis of the economic development of a resource-exporting country is presented. Two kinds of models have been used: single-sector and two-to-three sector models. Within the single-sector model, the effects of the uncertainty of world resource prices, of the constraints of natural resources on export capacities, and of the impact of foreign assets on the economy of a resource-exporting country have been analyzed. Two- and three-sector models were used to study the effects of the positive externality resulting from the accumulation of knowledge in the manufacturing sector, and of resource depletion. The main results obtained are as follows. An increasing world natural resource price leads, in the long-term perspective, to decreasing rates of economic growth of a resource-exporting country. The higher the share of a natural resource sectors the lower the equilibrium growth rate of GDP of a resource-rich country.
|Date of creation:||29 Nov 1999|
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