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Recovering Stars in Macroeconomics

Author

Listed:
  • Daniel Buncic
  • Adrian Pagan
  • Tim Robinson

Abstract

Many key macroeconomic variables such as the NAIRU, potential GDP, and the neutral real rate of interest—which are needed for policy analysis—are latent. Collectively, these latent variables are known as 'stars' and are typically estimated using the Kalman filter or smoother from models that can be expressed in State Space form. When these models contain more shocks than observed variables, they are 'short', and potentially create issues in recovering the star variable of interest from the observed data. Recovery issues can occur when the model is correctly specified and its parameters are known. In this paper, we summarize the literature on shock recovery and demonstrate its implications for estimating stars in a number of widely used models in policy analysis. The ability of many popular and recent models to recover stars is shown to be limited. We suggest ways this can be addressed.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Buncic & Adrian Pagan & Tim Robinson, 2023. "Recovering Stars in Macroeconomics," CAMA Working Papers 2023-43, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2023-43
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    File URL: https://crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/2025-01/43_2023_buncic_pagan_robinson.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Pierre L Siklos & Dora Xia & Hongyi Chen, 2025. "R* in East Asia: business, financial cycles, and spillovers," BIS Working Papers 1285, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Buncic, Daniel, 2024. "Econometric issues in the estimation of the natural rate of interest," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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