IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

A Dynamic Analysis of the Market for Wide-Bodied Commercial Aircraft

Author Info

  • Benkard, C. Lanier

    (Stanford U)

Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    This paper develops a multi-agent dynamic model of the commercial aircraft industry and then uses that model to analyze industry pricing, performance, and optimal industry policy. In the model, firms are differentiated in their products and cost structure, and entry, exit, prices, and quantity sold are endogenously determined in dynamic equilibrium. Reflecting the focus on the paper, demand and supply are modeled structurally, while investment is modeled in reduced form. The model utilizes a cost model of commercial aircraft production developed and estimated in a previous paper (Benkard (2000)), and a discrete choice model of commercial aircraft demand to determine static profits. I find that many unusual aspects of the aircraft data, such as high concentration and pricing below the level of static marginal cost, are explained by this model. The model also replicates the stochastic evolution of the industry well. Many of these properties could not be explained with a static model. These results provide support for the structural dynamic modeling approach in general. I also find that the unconstrained Markov perfect equilibrium is quite efficient from a social perspective, providing only 9% less welfare on average than a social planner would obtain, but that the Markov perfect equilibrium shifts a substantial amount of welfare from consumers to producers. Finally, I provide simulation evidence that an anti-trust policy in the form of a concentration restriction would be welfare reducing with high probability.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL: http://gsbapps.stanford.edu/researchpapers/library/rp1636.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Paper provided by Stanford University, Graduate School of Business in its series Research Papers with number 1636.

    as
    in new window

    Length:
    Date of creation: Mar 2000
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:ecl:stabus:1636
    Contact details of provider: Postal:
    Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305-5015

    Phone: (650) 723-2146
    Fax: (650)725-6750
    Web page: http://gsbapps.stanford.edu/researchpapers/
    Email:


    More information through EDIRC

    Keywords:

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as in new window
    1. Gilbert, Richard J & Harris, Richard G, 1981. "Investment Decisions with Economies of Scale and Learning," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(2), pages 172-77, May.
    2. Steven T. Berry, 1994. "Estimating Discrete-Choice Models of Product Differentiation," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 25(2), pages 242-262, Summer.
    3. G. Steven Olley & Ariel Pakes, 1992. "The Dynamics of Productivity in the Telecommunications Equipment Industry," NBER Working Papers 3977, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. A. M. Spence, 1981. "The Learning Curve and Competition," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 12(1), pages 49-70, Spring.
    5. Pankaj Ghemawat & A. Michael Spence, 1985. "Learning Curve Spillovers and Market Performance," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 100(Supplemen), pages 839-852.
    6. Luis M.B. Cabral & Michael Riordan, 1992. "The Learning Curve, Market Dominance and Predatory Pricing," Papers 0039, Boston University - Industry Studies Programme.
    7. Norman Keith Womer, 1984. "Estimating Learning Curves from Aggregate Monthly Data," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 30(8), pages 982-992, August.
    8. Klepper, Gernot, 1990. "Entry into the market for large transport aircraft," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 775-798, June.
    9. Irwin, Douglas A & Klenow, Peter J, 1994. "Learning-by-Doing Spillovers in the Semiconductor Industry," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(6), pages 1200-1227, December.
    10. Ariel Pakes, 1991. "Dynamic Structural Models: Problems and Prospects. Mixed Continuous Discrete Controls and Market Interactions," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 984, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    11. Dilip Mookherjee & Debraj Ray, 1991. "Collusive Market Structure Under Learning-By-Doing and Increasing Returns," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(5), pages 993-1009.
    12. Linda Argote & Sara L. Beckman & Dennis Epple, 1990. "The Persistence and Transfer of Learning in Industrial Settings," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 36(2), pages 140-154, February.
    13. Gautam Gowrisankaran & Robert J. Town, 1997. "Dynamic Equilibrium in the Hospital Industry," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(1), pages 45-74, 03.
    14. Flaherty, M Therese, 1980. "Industry Structure and Cost-Reducing Investment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1187-1209, July.
    15. Berry, Steven & Levinsohn, James & Pakes, Ariel, 1995. "Automobile Prices in Market Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(4), pages 841-90, July.
    16. Richard Ericson & Ariel Pakes, 1995. "Markov-Perfect Industry Dynamics: A Framework for Empirical Work," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 62(1), pages 53-82.
    17. Judd, Kenneth L., 1992. "Projection methods for solving aggregate growth models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 410-452, December.
    18. Norman Keith Womer, 1979. "Learning Curves, Production Rate, and Program Costs," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 25(4), pages 312-319, April.
    19. Robert H. Smiley & S. Abraham Ravid, 1983. "The Importance of Being First: Learning Price and Strategy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 98(2), pages 353-362.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    as in new window


    Cited by:

    1. Patrick Bajari & C. Lanier Benkard, 2001. "Demand Estimation With Heterogeneous Consumers and Unobserved Product Characteristics: A Hedonic Approach," NBER Technical Working Papers 0272, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Hinloopen, Jeroen & Smrkolj, Grega & Wagener, Florian, 2013. "From mind to market: A global, dynamic analysis of R&D," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2729-2754.
    3. C. Lanier Benkard, 2000. "Learning and Forgetting: The Dynamics of Aircraft Production," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 1034-1054, September.
    4. Hinloopen, J. & Smrkolj, G. & Wagener, F.O.O., 2013. "In Defense of Trusts: R&D Cooperation in Global Perspective," CeNDEF Working Papers 13-05, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    5. Park, Sangin, 2003. "Semiparametric instrumental variables estimation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 381-399, February.
    6. Douglas A. Irwin & Nina Pavcnik, 2001. "Airbus versus Boeing Revisited: International Competition in the Aircraft Market," NBER Working Papers 8648, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Patrick Bajari & C. Lanier Benkard, 2001. "Demand Estimation With Heterogeneous Consumers and Unobserved Product Characteristics: A Hedonic Approach," Working Papers 01010, Stanford University, Department of Economics.

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Access and download statistics

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecl:stabus:1636. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.