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The Observational Equivalence of Taylor Rule and Taylor-type Rules

  • Srinivasan, Naveen

    (Cardiff Business School)

  • Patrick Minford
  • Francesco Perugini

In a variety of recent papers, researchers have found that interest rate behaviour approximately follows a Taylor rule. From this they have concluded that the central bank is following a Taylor rule as its monetary policy reaction function. We show that such interest rate behaviour results when the central bank may be following quite different monetary policy rules from the one proposed by Taylor. In other words an interest rate relation with output and inflation does not identify a central bank reaction function.

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Paper provided by Royal Economic Society in its series Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 with number 167.

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Date of creation: 29 Aug 2002
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Handle: RePEc:ecj:ac2002:167
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  1. John B. Taylor, 2000. "Teaching Modern Macroeconomics at the Principles Level," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 90-94, May.
  2. Robert J. Barro & Robert G. King, 1984. "Time-Separable Preferences and Intertemporal-Substitution Models of Business Cycles," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 99(4), pages 817-839.
  3. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
  4. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1997. "Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence," Working Papers 97-32, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  5. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180.
  6. McCallum, Bennett T. & Nelson, Edward, 1998. "Nominal Income Targeting in an Open-Economy Optimizing Model," Seminar Papers 644, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  7. Minford, Patrick & Nowell, Eric & Webb, Bruce, 1999. "Nominal Contracts and Monetary Targets," CEPR Discussion Papers 2215, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Thomas J. Sargent, 1975. "The observational equivalence of natural and unnatural rate theories of macroeconomics," Working Papers 48, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  9. Phelps, Edmund S & Taylor, John B, 1977. "Stabilizing Powers of Monetary Policy under Rational Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(1), pages 163-90, February.
  10. Bennett T. McCallum & Edward Nelson, 1997. "An Optimizing IS-LM Specification for Monetary Policy and Business Cycle Analysis," NBER Working Papers 5875, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1995. "Symposium on the Monetary Transmission Mechanism," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 3-10, Fall.
  12. John B. Taylor, 1998. "An Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Working Papers 6768, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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