IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ecb/ecbwps/20212574.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Fundamentals vs. policies: can the US dollar’s dominance in global trade be dented?

Author

Listed:
  • Georgiadis, Georgios
  • Le Mezo, Helena
  • Mehl, Arnaud
  • Tille, Cédric

Abstract

The US dollar plays a dominant role in the invoicing of international trade, albeit not an exclusive one as more than half of global trade is invoiced in other currencies. Of particular interest are the euro, with a large role, and the renminbi, with a rising role. These two currencies are well suited to contrast the roles of economic fundamentals and policies, as European policy makers have taken a neutral stance in contrast to the promotion of the international role of the renminbi by the Chinese authorities. We assess the drivers of invoicing using the most recent and comprehensive data set for 115 countries over 1999-2019. We find that standard mechanisms that foster use of a large economy's currency predicted by theory – i.e. strategic complementarities in price setting and integration in cross-border value chains – underpin use of the dollar and the euro for trade with the United States and the euro area. These mechanisms also support the role of the dollar, but not the euro, in trade between non-US and non-euro area countries, making the dollar the globally dominant invoicing currency. Fundamentals and policies have played a contrasted role for the use of the renminbi. We find that China's integration into global trade has further strengthened the dominant status of the dollar at the expense of the euro. At the same time, the establishment of currency swap lines by the People's Bank of China has been associated with increases in renminbi invoicing, with an adverse effect on dollar use that is larger than for the euro. JEL Classification: F14, F31, F44

Suggested Citation

  • Georgiadis, Georgios & Le Mezo, Helena & Mehl, Arnaud & Tille, Cédric, 2021. "Fundamentals vs. policies: can the US dollar’s dominance in global trade be dented?," Working Paper Series 2574, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20212574
    Note: 2435756
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2574~664b8e9249.en.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bacchetta, Philippe & van Wincoop, Eric, 2005. "A theory of the currency denomination of international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 295-319, December.
    2. Bahaj, Saleem & Reis, Ricardo, 2020. "Jumpstarting an International Currency," CEPR Discussion Papers 14793, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Mary Amiti & Oleg Itskhoki & Jozef Konings, 2018. "Dominant currencies How firms choose currency invoicing and why it matters," Working Paper Research 353, National Bank of Belgium.
    4. Belotti,Federico & Borin,Alessandro & Mancini,Michele, 2020. "icio : Economic Analysis with Inter-Country Input-Output Tables in Stata," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9156, The World Bank.
    5. Batten, Jonathan A. & Szilagyi, Peter G., 2016. "The internationalisation of the RMB: New starts, jumps and tipping points," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 221-238.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:sea:wpaper:wp45 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Lodge, David & Pérez, Javier J. & Albrizio, Silvia & Everett, Mary & De Bandt, Olivier & Georgiadis, Georgios & Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Lastauskas, Povilas & Carluccio, Juan & Parrága, Susana & Carvalho,, 2021. "The implications of globalisation for the ECB monetary policy strategy," Occasional Paper Series 263, European Central Bank.
    3. Boz, Emine & Casas, Camila & Georgiadis, Georgios & Gopinath, Gita & Le Mezo, Helena & Mehl, Arnaud & Nguyen, Tra, 2022. "Patterns of invoicing currency in global trade: New evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Crowley, Meredith & Han, Lu, 2022. "Invoicing and the dynamics of pricing-to-market: Evidence from UK export prices around the Brexit referendum," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    2. Liu, Tao & Wang, Xiaosong & Woo, Wing Thye, 2019. "The road to currency internationalization: Global perspectives and chinese experience," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 73-101.
    3. Liu, Tao & Lu, Dong & Woo, Wing Thye, 2019. "Trade, finance and international currency," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 374-413.
    4. Mukhin, Dmitry, 2022. "An equilibrium model of the international price system," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 112500, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Boz, Emine & Casas, Camila & Georgiadis, Georgios & Gopinath, Gita & Le Mezo, Helena & Mehl, Arnaud & Nguyen, Tra, 2020. "Patterns in invoicing currency in global trade," Working Paper Series 2456, European Central Bank.
    6. Liu, Tao & Wang, Xiaosong & Woo, Wing Thye, 2022. "The rise of Renminbi in Asia: Evidence from Network Analysis and SWIFT dataset," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    7. Özyurt, Selin, 2016. "Has the exchange rate pass through recently declined in the euro area?," Working Paper Series 1955, European Central Bank.
    8. Choudhri, Ehsan U. & Hakura, Dalia S., 2015. "The exchange rate pass-through to import and export prices: The role of nominal rigidities and currency choice," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 1-25.
    9. Auboin, Marc, 2012. "Use of currencies in international irade: Any changes in the picture?," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2012-10, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    10. Georgiadis, Georgios & Schumann, Ben, 2021. "Dominant-currency pricing and the global output spillovers from US dollar appreciation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    11. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2004. "A corporate balance-sheet approach to currency crises," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 6-30, November.
    12. Yunus Aksoy & Hanno Lustig, 2007. "Exchange Rates, Prices And International Trade In A Model Of Endogenous Market Structure," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 75(2), pages 160-192, March.
    13. ITO Takatoshi & KOIBUCHI Satoshi & SATO Kiyotaka & SHIMIZU Junko, 2015. "Choice of Invoice Currency in Global Production and Sales Networks: The case of Japanese overseas subsidiaries," Discussion papers 15080, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    14. Goldberg, Linda & Tille, Cédric, 2013. "A bargaining theory of trade invoicing and pricing," Kiel Working Papers 1839, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    15. Ligthart, Jenny E. & Werner, Sebastian E.V., 2012. "Has the euro affected the choice of invoicing currency?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1551-1573.
    16. Sunghun Lim, 2021. "Global Agricultural Value Chains and Structural Transformation," NBER Chapters, in: Risks in Agricultural Supply Chains, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Toshitaka Sekine, 2006. "Time-varying exchange rate pass-through: experiences of some industrial countries," BIS Working Papers 202, Bank for International Settlements.
    18. Giancarlo Corsetti & Meredith Crowley & Lu Han & Huasheng Song, 2018. "Markets and Markups: A New Empirical Framework and Evidence on Exporters from China," Discussion Papers 1803, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    19. Liu, Tao, 2015. "Trade finance and international currency," MPRA Paper 64362, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Barthélémy Bonadio & Andreas M Fischer & Philip Sauré, 2020. "The Speed of Exchange Rate Pass-Through," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 18(1), pages 506-538.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    dominant currency paradigm; international trade invoicing; markets vs. policies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20212574. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/emieude.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Official Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/emieude.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.