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Bubbles, bank credit and macroprudential policies

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  • Derviz, Alexis

Abstract

We explore the ability of a macroprudential policy instrument to dampen the consequences of equity mispricing (a bubble) and the correction thereof (the bubble bursting), as well as the consequences for real activity in a production economy. In our model, producers are financed by both bank debt and equity, and face a mix of systematic and idiosyncratic uncertainty. Positive/negative bubbles arise when prior public beliefs about the aggregate productivity of producers (business sentiment) become biased upwards/downwards. Economic activity in equilibrium is influenced by the bubble size. The presence of macroprudential policy is represented by a convex dependence of bank capital requirements on the quantity of uncollateralized credit. We find that this kind of policy is more successful in suppressing equity price swings than moderating output fluctuations. Economic activity declines with the introduction of a macroprudential instrument in this model, so that the ultimate welfare contribution of the latter would depend on the aggregate default costs. JEL Classification: G01, G21, G12, E22, D82

Suggested Citation

  • Derviz, Alexis, 2013. "Bubbles, bank credit and macroprudential policies," Working Paper Series 1551, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20131551
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Sebastian Krug & Matthias Lengnick & Hans-Werner Wohltmann, 2014. "The impact of Basel III on financial (in)stability: an agent-based credit network approach," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, pages 1917-1932.
    2. Lukas Scheffknecht, 2013. "Contextualizing Systemic Risk," ROME Working Papers 201317, ROME Network.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    asset price; bank; bubble; credit; macroprudential policy;

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design

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