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Capital flows and the US "New Economy": consumption smoothing and risk exposure

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  • Miller, Marcus
  • Castrén, Olli
  • Zhang, Lei

Abstract

In an analytically tractable model of the global economy, we calculate the Pareto improvement where a country experiencing a favourable supply side shock consumes more against expected future output and spreads the risk by selling shares. With capital inflows to finance the"New Economy" significantly exceeding the current account deficit, however, we show that selling shares globally at inflated prices - due to "irrational exuberance" and distorted corporate incentives - can generate significant international transfers when the asset bubble bursts. The analysis complements recent econometric studies which appeal to financial factors to explain why the European economy was so strongly affected by the recent US downturn. JEL Classification: F41, F32, G15

Suggested Citation

  • Miller, Marcus & Castrén, Olli & Zhang, Lei, 2005. "Capital flows and the US "New Economy": consumption smoothing and risk exposure," Working Paper Series 459, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2005459
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ana Beatriz Galvão & Michael Artis & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2007. "The transmission mechanism in a changing world," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 39-61.
    2. Miller, Marcus & Stiegert, Roger & Castrén, Olli, 2003. "Growth expectations, capital flows and international risk sharing," Working Paper Series 237, European Central Bank.
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    Cited by:

    1. Marcus Miller & Lei Zhang, 2006. "Capital Flows, Interest Rates and Precautionary Behaviour: a model of "global imbalances"," WEF Working Papers 0014, ESRC World Economy and Finance Research Programme, Birkbeck, University of London.
    2. Miller, Marcus & Zhang, Lei, 2007. "Fear and Market Failure: Global Imbalances and ¿Self-Insurance¿," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 1606, Inter-American Development Bank.
    3. Miller, Marcus, 2006. "Fear and Market Failure: Global Imbalances and 'Self-insurance'," CEPR Discussion Papers 6000, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Marcus Miller & Lei Zhang, 2007. "Fear and Market Failure: Global Imbalances and ¿Self-Insurance¿," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 6731, Inter-American Development Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    capital flows; international transmission of shocks; moral hazard;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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