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Identification of Common and Idiosyncratic Shocks in Real Equity Prices: Australia 1982 to 2002

Author

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  • Mardi Dungey

  • Renee Fry

Abstract

A structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model of real equity prices in Australia is specified to contain common shocks in international equity markets and domestic shocks in Australian financial and goods markets. Common shocks are identified through the long-run comovements of international equity markets, resulting in the model being characterized as having more shocks than variables. The empirical results show that the dot-com crisis of 2000 causes Australian real equity values to depreciate significantly below a precrisis baseline forecast, while contagion from the Asian financial crisis of 1997-1998 is found to have a much smaller negative impact.

Suggested Citation

  • Mardi Dungey & Renee Fry, 2003. "Identification of Common and Idiosyncratic Shocks in Real Equity Prices: Australia 1982 to 2002," Departmental Working Papers 2003-18, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:pas:papers:2003-18
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    File URL: https://hdl.handle.net/1885/733754338
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    Cited by:

    1. Mansur, Alfan & Liu, Yichang & Zaman, Kazi Arif Uz, 2015. "Portfolio Shocks and the Dynamics of the Real Economy of Australia (1980-2014): A Structural Vector Autoregressive Model Approach," MPRA Paper 93992, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 17 May 2015.
    2. Sunil S. Poshakwale & Chandra Thapa, 2010. "Foreign Investors and Global Integration of Emerging Indian Equity Market," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 9(1), pages 1-24, April.
    3. Kaabia, Olfa & Abid, Ilyes & Guesmi, Khaled, 2013. "Does Bayesian shrinkage help to better reflect what happened during the subprime crisis?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 423-432.
    4. Ms. Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo & Mr. Vance Martin & Mr. Mardi Dungey & Ms. Renee Fry, 2003. "Characterizing Global Investors' Risk Appetite for Emerging Market Debt During Financial Crises," IMF Working Papers 2003/251, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Edda Claus & Mardi Dungey & Renée Fry, 2008. "Monetary Policy in Illiquid Markets: Options for a Small Open Economy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 305-336, July.
    6. Mardi Dungey, 2010. "Discussion of The Economic Consequences of Oil Shocks: Differences across Countries and Time," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Renée Fry & Callum Jones & Christopher Kent (ed.),Inflation in an Era of Relative Price Shocks, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    7. Kathleen Walsh, 2015. "The investment horizon and asset pricing models," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 40(2), pages 277-294, May.
    8. Dungey, Mardi & Fry, Renee & Martin, Vance L., 2004. "Identification of common and idiosyncratic shocks in real equity prices: Australia, 1982-2002," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 81-102.

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