IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/diw/diwwpp/dp465.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Entrepreneurial Overconfidence: Evidence from a C.A.R.T. Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Philipp Köllinger
  • Maria Minniti
  • Christian Schade

Abstract

We use a sample of 18 countries to study what variables have a significant impact on an individual's decision to start a new business and classification and regression trees for an accurate interpretation of the data. Our results support existing literature suggesting the existence of strong country effects. In addition, we find strong evidence that perceptual variables, such as one's belief about her own skills and ability and about the risk involved in the venture, have a crucial impact on new business creation across all countries in our sample. Our findings are consistent with the idea that entrepreneurs evaluate their businesses by taking an "inside view" of their situation, overestimate their likelihood of success, and, as a result, rely significantly on perceptions rather than on objective expectations of success.

Suggested Citation

  • Philipp Köllinger & Maria Minniti & Christian Schade, 2005. "Entrepreneurial Overconfidence: Evidence from a C.A.R.T. Approach," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 465, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp465
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.42837.de/dp465.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Daniel Kahneman & Dan Lovallo, 1993. "Timid Choices and Bold Forecasts: A Cognitive Perspective on Risk Taking," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 39(1), pages 17-31, January.
    2. Douglas Holtz-Eakin & David Joulfaian & Harvey S. Rosen, 1994. "Entrepreneurial Decisions and Liquidity Constraints," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 25(2), pages 334-347, Summer.
    3. Baumol, William J., 1996. "Entrepreneurship: Productive, unproductive, and destructive," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 3-22, January.
    4. Holtz-Eakin, Douglas & Joulfaian, David & Rosen, Harvey S, 1994. "Sticking It Out: Entrepreneurial Survival and Liquidity Constraints," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(1), pages 53-75, February.
    5. Timothy Dunne & Mark J. Roberts & Larry Samuelson, 1988. "Patterns of Firm Entry and Exit in U.S. Manufacturing Industries," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 19(4), pages 495-515, Winter.
    6. Evans, David S & Jovanovic, Boyan, 1989. "An Estimated Model of Entrepreneurial Choice under Liquidity Constraints," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(4), pages 808-827, August.
    7. Blanchflower, David G & Oswald, Andrew J, 1998. "What Makes an Entrepreneur?," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 16(1), pages 26-60, January.
    8. Taylor, Mark P, 1996. "Earnings, Independence or Unemployment: Why Become Self-Employed?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(2), pages 253-266, May.
    9. Tobias J. Moskowitz & Annette Vissing-Jørgensen, 2002. "The Returns to Entrepreneurial Investment: A Private Equity Premium Puzzle?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 745-778, September.
    10. Iyigun, Murat F & Owen, Ann L, 1998. "Risk, Entrepreneurship, and Human-Capital Accumulation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(2), pages 454-457, May.
    11. Busenitz, Lowell W. & Barney, Jay B., 1997. "Differences between entrepreneurs and managers in large organizations: Biases and heuristics in strategic decision-making," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 9-30, January.
    12. Otani, Kiyoshi, 1996. "A Human Capital Approach to Entrepreneurial Capacity," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 63(250), pages 273-289, May.
    13. Elke U. Weber & Richard A. Milliman, 1997. "Perceived Risk Attitudes: Relating Risk Perception to Risky Choice," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 43(2), pages 123-144, February.
    14. Cooper, Arnold C. & Woo, Carolyn Y. & Dunkelberg, William C., 1988. "Entrepreneurs' perceived chances for success," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 97-108.
    15. Bates, Timothy, 1990. "Entrepreneur Human Capital Inputs and Small Business Longevity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(4), pages 551-559, November.
    16. Dan Lovallo & Colin Camerer, 1999. "Overconfidence and Excess Entry: An Experimental Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 306-318, March.
    17. Barton H. Hamilton, 2000. "Does Entrepreneurship Pay? An Empirical Analysis of the Returns to Self-Employment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(3), pages 604-631, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Koellinger, Philipp & Minniti, Maria & Schade, Christian, 2007. ""I think I can, I think I can": Overconfidence and entrepreneurial behavior," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 502-527, August.
    2. Ross Levine & Yona Rubinstein, 2018. "Selection into Entrepreneurship and Self-Employment," NBER Working Papers 25350, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Ross Levine & Yona Rubinstein, 2017. "Smart and Illicit: Who Becomes an Entrepreneur and Do They Earn More?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(2), pages 963-1018.
    4. Marco Vivarelli, 2013. "Is entrepreneurship necessarily good? Microeconomic evidence from developed and developing countries," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 22(6), pages 1453-1495, December.
    5. Marta Coelho & David de Meza & Diane Reyniers, 2004. "Irrational Exuberance, Entrepreneurial Finance and Public Policy," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 11(4), pages 391-417, August.
    6. Hvide, Hans K. & Møen, Jarle, 2007. "Liquidity Constraints and Entrepreneurial Performance," Discussion Papers 2007/21, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
    7. Martin Koudstaal & Randolph Sloof & Mirjam van Praag, 2015. "Are Entrepreneurs more Optimistic and Overconfident than Managers and Employees?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 15-124/VII, Tinbergen Institute.
    8. McCann, Brian T. & Folta, Timothy B., 2012. "Entrepreneurial entry thresholds," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 84(3), pages 782-800.
    9. Yannis Georgellis & Howard Wall, 2005. "Gender differences in self-employment," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 321-342.
    10. Nan Langowitz & Maria Minniti, 2007. "The Entrepreneurial Propensity of Women," Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, , vol. 31(3), pages 341-364, May.
    11. Niklas Elert, 2014. "What determines entry? Evidence from Sweden," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 53(1), pages 55-92, August.
    12. Clemens, Christiane & Heinemann, Maik, 2010. "On entrepreneurial risk-taking and the macroeconomic effects of financial constraints," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1610-1626, September.
    13. Christopher Dawson & David de Meza & Andrew Henley & G. Reza Arabsheibani, 2014. "Entrepreneurship: Cause and Consequence of Financial Optimism," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(4), pages 717-742, December.
    14. David B. Audretsch & Dirk Dohse & Annekatrin Niebuhr, 2015. "Regional unemployment structure and new firm formation," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 94, pages 115-138, November.
    15. Nadia Simoes & Nuno Crespo & Sandrina B. Moreira, 2016. "Individual Determinants Of Self-Employment Entry: What Do We Really Know?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(4), pages 783-806, September.
    16. Roy Thurik, 2014. "Entrepreneurship and the business cycle," IZA World of Labor, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), pages 1-90, October.
    17. Johan Hombert & Antoinette Schoar & David Sraer & David Thesmar, 2020. "Can Unemployment Insurance Spur Entrepreneurial Activity? Evidence from France," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(3), pages 1247-1285, June.
    18. Giuliano Guerra & Roberto Patuelli, 2016. "The Role of Job Satisfaction in Transitions into Self–Employment," Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, , vol. 40(3), pages 543-571, May.
    19. Kuechle, Graciela, 2011. "Persistence and heterogeneity in entrepreneurship: An evolutionary game theoretic analysis," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 458-471, July.
    20. Thomas A. Garrett & Howard J. Wall, 2006. "Creating a Policy Environment for Entrepreneurs," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 26(3), pages 525-552, Fall.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    CARTs; Entrepreneurship; Overconfidence; Self-employment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J4 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets
    • D0 - Microeconomics - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp465. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Bibliothek (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/diwbede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.