IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/diw/diwwpp/dp248.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Modellgestützte Analyse der ökologischen Steuerreform mit LEAN, PANTA RHEI: und dem Potsdamer Mikrosimulationsmodell

Author

Listed:
  • Stefan Bach
  • Michael Kohlhaas
  • Bernd Meyer
  • Barbara Praetorius
  • Heinz Welsch

Abstract

A first systematic, model-based analysis of the environmental fiscal reform in Germany indicates moderate but slightly positive effects on employment, energy consumption and CO2 emissions. Two macro-sectoral models - an econometric model and an empirical general equilibrium model - were applied; the effects on the personal income distribution were estimated with a micro simulation model. The influence on economic growth is very low; employment is growing slightly, while energy consumption and CO2 emissions are decreasing. The sectoral development shows no universal pattern for a structural change to the disadvantage of energy intensive industries and to the benefit of labour intensive branches. The distributive effects are moderate. The environmental fiscal reform could play a larger role in climate protection. Weaknesses of the previous concept should be removed gradually. Eine erste systematische, modellgestützte Untersuchung der ökologischen Steuerreform in Deutschland kommt zu moderaten bis positiven Effekten auf Wirtschaftswachstum, Beschäftigung, Energieverbrauch und CO2-Emissionen. Für die Analyse wurden zwei gesamtwirtschaftliche Modelle - ein ökonometrisches Simulations- und Prognosemodell sowie ein empirisches allgemeines Gleichgewichtsmodell - eingesetzt. Die Wirkungen auf die personelle Einkommensverteilung wurden mit einem Mikrosimulationsmodell abgeschätzt. Die Ergebnisse weisen überwiegend positive Effekte der Reform aus. Der Einfluss auf das Wirtschaftswachstum ist sehr gering; die Beschäftigung nimmt zu, Energieverbrauch und CO2-Emissionen nehmen ab. Auch die Verteilungswirkungen sind moderat. Die sektorale Entwicklung weist kein durchgängiges Muster für einen Strukturwandel zu Lasten energieintensiver und zu Gunsten arbeitsintensiver Bereiche auf. Die ökologische Steuerreform könnte eine größere Rolle im Klimaschutz spielen. Dazu müssten Schwächen des bisherigen Konzepts schrittweise beseitigt werden.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefan Bach & Michael Kohlhaas & Bernd Meyer & Barbara Praetorius & Heinz Welsch, 2001. "Modellgestützte Analyse der ökologischen Steuerreform mit LEAN, PANTA RHEI: und dem Potsdamer Mikrosimulationsmodell," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 248, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp248
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.38538.de/dp248.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kemfert, Claudia & Welsch, Heinz, 2000. "Energy-Capital-Labor Substitution and the Economic Effects of CO2 Abatement: Evidence for Germany," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 641-660, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Beuermann, Christiane & Santarius, Tilman, 2006. "Ecological tax reform in Germany: handling two hot potatoes at the same time," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 917-929, May.
    2. Bartelmus, Peter & Albert, Jörg & Tschochohei, Heinrich, 2003. "Wie teuer ist (uns) die Umwelt? Zur umweltökonomischen Gesamtrechnung in Deutschland," Wuppertal Papers 128, Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy.
    3. Bockermann, Andreas & Meyer, Bernd & Omann, Ines & Spangenberg, Joachim H., 2005. "Modelling sustainability: Comparing an econometric (PANTA RHEI) and a systems dynamics model (SuE)," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 189-210, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    environmental fiscal reform; computable general equilibrium model; econometric model; microsimulation model;

    JEL classification:

    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp248. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Bibliothek). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/diwbede.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.