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Modellgestützte Analyse der ökologischen Steuerreform mit LEAN, PANTA RHEI: und dem Potsdamer Mikrosimulationsmodell

  • Stefan Bach
  • Michael Kohlhaas
  • Bernd Meyer
  • Barbara Praetorius
  • Heinz Welsch

A first systematic, model-based analysis of the environmental fiscal reform in Germany indicates moderate but slightly positive effects on employment, energy consumption and CO2 emissions. Two macro-sectoral models - an econometric model and an empirical general equilibrium model - were applied; the effects on the personal income distribution were estimated with a micro simulation model. The influence on economic growth is very low; employment is growing slightly, while energy consumption and CO2 emissions are decreasing. The sectoral development shows no universal pattern for a structural change to the disadvantage of energy intensive industries and to the benefit of labour intensive branches. The distributive effects are moderate. The environmental fiscal reform could play a larger role in climate protection. Weaknesses of the previous concept should be removed gradually. Eine erste systematische, modellgestützte Untersuchung der ökologischen Steuerreform in Deutschland kommt zu moderaten bis positiven Effekten auf Wirtschaftswachstum, Beschäftigung, Energieverbrauch und CO2-Emissionen. Für die Analyse wurden zwei gesamtwirtschaftliche Modelle - ein ökonometrisches Simulations- und Prognosemodell sowie ein empirisches allgemeines Gleichgewichtsmodell - eingesetzt. Die Wirkungen auf die personelle Einkommensverteilung wurden mit einem Mikrosimulationsmodell abgeschätzt. Die Ergebnisse weisen überwiegend positive Effekte der Reform aus. Der Einfluss auf das Wirtschaftswachstum ist sehr gering; die Beschäftigung nimmt zu, Energieverbrauch und CO2-Emissionen nehmen ab. Auch die Verteilungswirkungen sind moderat. Die sektorale Entwicklung weist kein durchgängiges Muster für einen Strukturwandel zu Lasten energieintensiver und zu Gunsten arbeitsintensiver Bereiche auf. Die ökologische Steuerreform könnte eine größere Rolle im Klimaschutz spielen. Dazu müssten Schwächen des bisherigen Konzepts schrittweise beseitigt werden.

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Paper provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its series Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin with number 248.

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Length: 28 p.
Date of creation: 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp248
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  1. Kemfert, Claudia & Welsch, Heinz, 2000. "Energy-Capital-Labor Substitution and the Economic Effects of CO2 Abatement: Evidence for Germany," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 641-660, November.
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