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Banking of Surplus Emissions Allowances: Does the Volume Matter?

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Listed:
  • Karsten Neuhoff
  • Anne Schopp
  • Rodney Boyd
  • Kateryna Stelmakh
  • Alexander Vasa

Abstract

In the European Emission Trading scheme the supply of allowances exceeds emissions - cumulating, according to our estimates, in a surplus of 2.7 billion tonnes by 2013/2014. We find that initially the surplus was acquired by power companies so as to hedge future carbon costs. As the surplus exceeds this hedging demand, additional allowances need to be acquired as speculative investment. This requires higher rates of return and implies that expected future carbon prices are highly discounted. This could explain the recent drop in carbon prices. The analysis shows that the volume of unused allowances matters for the discount applied to future carbon prices. We use our supply-demand framework to assess currently discussed policy options set-aside, reserve price for auctions and adjustments of emission targets.

Suggested Citation

  • Karsten Neuhoff & Anne Schopp & Rodney Boyd & Kateryna Stelmakh & Alexander Vasa, 2012. "Banking of Surplus Emissions Allowances: Does the Volume Matter?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1196, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1196
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Emilie Alberola & Julien Chevallier, 2009. "European Carbon Prices and Banking Restrictions: Evidence from Phase I (2005-2007)," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 51-80.
    2. Daniel Phaneuf & Till Requate, 2002. "Incentives for Investment in Advanced Pollution Abatement Technology in Emission Permit Markets with Banking," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 22(3), pages 369-390, July.
    3. Changyun Wang, 2001. "Investor Sentiment and Return Predictability in Agricultural Futures Markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(10), pages 929-952, October.
    4. Bosetti, Valentina & Carraro, Carlo & Massetti, Emanuele, 2009. "Banking permits: Economic efficiency and distributional effects," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 382-403, May.
    5. Bessembinder, Hendrik, 1992. "Systematic Risk, Hedging Pressure, and Risk Premiums in Futures Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(4), pages 637-667.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    JEL classification:

    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy

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