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Produktivitätswachstum, Investitionen und säkulare Stagnation

Author

Listed:
  • Guido Baldi
  • Patrick Harms

Abstract

Die entwickelten Volkswirtschaften erholen sich nur schleppend von der Finanzkrise. Unter dem Eindruck dieser jüngsten Entwicklungen wird verschiedentlich darauf hingewiesen, dass sich das Wirtschaftswachstum pro Kopf in vielen entwickelten Volkswirtschaften bereits seit den 1980er Jahren verlangsamt hat. Untersuchungen deuten darauf hin, dass dieser Rückgang zu einem bedeutenden Teil auf ein geringes Wachstum der Produktivität zurückzuführen ist. Die Produktionsfaktoren wie Arbeit und Kapital werden zwar laufend produktiver eingesetzt – die Zuwächse sind aber im historischen Vergleich gering. Das abnehmende Produktivitätswachstum dürfte insbesondere seit dem Ausbruch der Finanzkrise im Jahr 2008 auch zu dem in vielen Ländern verhaltenen Anstieg der Unternehmensinvestitionen beigetragen haben. Auch für die kommenden Jahre werden verschiedentlich niedrige Wachstumsraten des Bruttoinlandsprodukts, der Produktivität sowie der Investitionen vorausgesagt. Dies veranlasst einige Ökonomen dazu, von einer möglicherweise säkularen – also lang andauernden – Stagnationsphase zu sprechen. In der wissenschaftlichen und politikberatenden Literatur ist vor diesem Hintergrund eine ausführliche Diskussion entstanden zu den möglichen Ursachen der Wachstumsschwäche und zu geeigneten Politikmaßnahmen zur Abwendung einer möglicherweise länger anhaltenden Phase niedrigen Wirtschaftswachstums. Als geeignete Politikmaßnahmen, um das Wirtschaftswachstum zu fördern, werden häufig bessere Anreize für höhere private Investitionen, eine Steigerung der öffentlichen Investitionen sowie die Förderung von Bildung genannt.

Suggested Citation

  • Guido Baldi & Patrick Harms, 2015. "Produktivitätswachstum, Investitionen und säkulare Stagnation," DIW Roundup: Politik im Fokus 83, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwrup:83de
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert J. Gordon, 2015. "Secular Stagnation: A Supply-Side View," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(5), pages 54-59, May.
    2. Guido Baldi & Patrick Harms, 2014. "Die neue Wachstumsdebatte," DIW Roundup: Politik im Fokus 18, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    3. Guido Baldi & Ferdinand Fichtner & Claus Michelsen & Malte Rieth, 2014. "Schwache Investitionen dämpfen Wachstum in Europa," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 81(27), pages 637-651.
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    6. Joel Mokyr & Chris Vickers & Nicolas L. Ziebarth, 2015. "The History of Technological Anxiety and the Future of Economic Growth: Is This Time Different?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 29(3), pages 31-50, Summer.
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