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Schwache Investitionen dämpfen Wachstum in Europa

Author

Listed:
  • Guido Baldi
  • Ferdinand Fichtner
  • Claus Michelsen
  • Malte Rieth

Abstract

In the course of the economic and financial crisis, investment activity, which was not very strong to begin with, in Europe and especially the Eurozone caved in. In relation to gross domestic product, fixed capital formation declined by four percentage points since 2008. Already prior to the crisis, investment activity was rather weak in parts of the Eurozone — amongst others in Germany. This finding is indicated by model simulations which account for country-specific macroeconomic conditions. On the other hand, especially in southern European economies, investment — mostly in the home construction sector — was markedly high before the crisis. These investments were however mainly financed by capital inflows from abroad. In the course of the crisis, foreign direct investment slumped and so did investment activity in these countries which has not been counterbalanced by higher investments in other parts of the monetary union. As a result, current investment in the Eurozone remains markedly below the level corresponding to macroeconomic conditions. When measured against this baseline, there was an underinvestment of around two percent on average in relation to gross domestic product between 2010 and 2012. This is associated with significant reductions in growth in the short and long run since the capital stock needed to maintain production capacity is growing rather slowly. If investment activity in the Eurozone had been correspondingly stronger, potential growth in the monetary union could have been 0.2 percentage points higher than observed since the crisis. Im Zuge der Wirtschafts- und Finanzkrise ist die ohnehin nicht kräftige Investitionstätigkeit in Europa und insbesondere im Euroraum eingebrochen; in Relation zum Bruttoinlandsprodukt sind die Bruttoanlageinvestitionen seit 2008 um vier Prozentpunkte gesunken. Schon vor der Krise war in Teilen des Euroraums – darunter in Deutschland – die Investitionstätigkeit gemessen an den gesamtwirtschaftlichen Bedingungen eher schwach; darauf weisen Modellsimulationen hin. Insbesondere in den südeuropäischen Volkswirtschaften hingegen waren die Investitionen – vor allem im Wohnungsbau – in der Vorkrisenzeit ausgesprochen hoch, waren aber zu wesentlichen Teilen durch Kapitalzuflüsse aus dem Ausland finanziert. Im Zuge der Krise sind die ausländischen Direktinvestitionen und mit ihnen die Investitionstätigkeit eingebrochen, ohne dass dies bisher durch höhere Investitionen in anderen Teilen der Währungsunion ausgeglichen würde. Im Ergebnis liegen amaktuellen Rand die Investitionen im Euroraum deutlich unter dem Niveau, das den gesamtwirtschaftlichen Bedingungen entspräche; im Zeitraum zwischen 2010 und2012 wurden daran gemessen im Durchschnitt etwa zwei Prozent in Relation zum Bruttoinlandsprodukt zu wenig investiert. Damit verbunden sind erhebliche Wachstumseinbußen in der kurzen wie in der langen Frist, da der für die Expansion der Produktionsmöglichkeiten erforderliche Kapitalstock nur langsam wächst: Wäre die Investitionstätigkeit im Euroraum entsprechend höher gewesen, so hätte das Potentialwachstum in der Währungsunion seit der Krise um jahresdurchschnittlich 0,2 Prozentpunkte höher liegen können als tatsächlich beobachtet.

Suggested Citation

  • Guido Baldi & Ferdinand Fichtner & Claus Michelsen & Malte Rieth, 2014. "Schwache Investitionen dämpfen Wachstum in Europa," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 81(27), pages 637-651.
  • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwob:81-27-3
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Christofzik, Désirée I. & Yeter, Mustafa & Feld, Lars P., 2019. "Öffentliche Investitionen: Wie viel ist zu wenig?," Working Papers 01/2019, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.
    2. Bofinger, Peter & Schnabel, Isabel & Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Wieland, Volker, 2014. "Mehr Vertrauen in Marktprozesse. Jahresgutachten 2014/15," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201415.
    3. Guido Baldi & Patrick Harms, 2015. "Produktivitätswachstum, Investitionen und säkulare Stagnation," DIW Roundup: Politik im Fokus 83, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    4. Dienes, Christian & Pahnke, André & Wolter, Hans-Jürgen, 2018. "Investitionsverhalten von kleinen und mittleren Unternehmen," IfM-Materialien 268, Institut für Mittelstandsforschung (IfM) Bonn.
    5. Bofinger, Peter & Schnabel, Isabel & Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Wieland, Volker, 2015. "Zukunftsfähigkeit in den Mittelpunkt. Jahresgutachten 2015/16," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201516.
    6. Paul J.J. Welfens & Toni Irawan & Jens K. Perret, 2016. "True Investment-GDP Ratio in a World Economy with Investment in Information & Communication Technology," EIIW Discussion paper disbei215, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.
    7. Guido Baldi & Jakob Miethe, 2015. "Ausländische Direktinvestitionen und Wirtschaftswachstum," DIW Roundup: Politik im Fokus 71, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    investment; potential growth; construction;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements

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