Effective Counterterrorism: What Have We Learned so Far?
The fight against terrorism, in particular of Islamist nature, has become a focus area of foreign and security policies in Western countries and around the world. This substantial effort is however only to a limited extent matched by adequate evaluations as to its actual success. This paper offers an overview of the counterterrorism effectiveness literature in terms of main areas of interest, conceptualisation and operationalisation difficulties as well as methodological considerations regarding the types of methods used, validity and reliability evaluations. It discusses the different understandings of causality and proposes a working definition of counterterrorism effectiveness. We find that a main focus of the literature lies on the impact component of effectiveness, often in the sense of a reduction of terrorist attacks in general or a reduction of certain methods of terrorism such as suicide attacks. Our model article "What Happened to Suicide Bombings in Israel? Insights from a Terror Stock Model" by Kaplan et al. (2005) illustrates the above-mentioned issues and reflects the mainstream approach in this field. The article uses econometric methods to determine the impact-effectiveness of counter-terrorism and reflects the problematique associated with attempts to infer a causal relationship between counterterrorism policies and the occurrence of terrorism.
|Date of creation:||2011|
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- Teun van Dongen, 2009. "Break it Down: An Alternative Approach to Measuring Effectiveness in Counterterrorism," Economics of Security Working Paper Series 23, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Carlos Pestana Barros, 2003. "An intervention analysis of terrorism: The spanish eta case," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(6), pages 401-412.
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- Konstantinos Drakos & Nicholas Giannakopoulos, 2009. "An econometric analysis of counterterrorism effectiveness: the impact on life and property losses," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 139(1), pages 135-151, April.
- David A. Jaeger & M. Daniele Paserman, 2007.
"The Shape of Things to Come? Assessing the Effectiveness of Suicide Attacks and Targeted Killings,"
54, Department of Economics, College of William and Mary.
- Jaeger, David A. & Paserman, M. Daniele, 2007. "The Shape of Things to Come? Assessing the Effectiveness of Suicide Attacks and Targeted Killings," IZA Discussion Papers 2890, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Landes, William M, 1978. "An Economic Study of U.S. Aircraft Hijacking, 1961-1976," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 21(1), pages 1-31, April.
- Asaf Zussman & Noam Zussman, 2006. "Assassinations: Evaluating the Effectiveness of an Israeli Counterterrorism Policy Using Stock Market Data," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(2), pages 193-206, Spring.
- Todd Sandler & Daniel G. Arce & Walter Enders, 2011. "An Evaluation of Interpol’s Cooperative-Based Counterterrorism Linkages," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(1), pages 79 - 110.
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