IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/dem/wpaper/wp-2020-003.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The boomer penalty: excess mortality among baby boomers in Canada and the United States

Author

Listed:
  • Enrique Acosta

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)

  • Alain Gagnon

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)

  • Nadine Ouellette
  • Robert R. Bourbeau
  • Marilia R. Nepomuceno

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)

  • Alyson A. van Raalte

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)

Abstract

Studies suggest that, relative to adjacent cohorts, baby boomers in Canada and the United States have experienced a slowdown, or even a deterioration, in mortality improvements. These findings are counterintuitive and surprising since the unprecedented improvements in early-life conditions experienced by baby boomers should have led to declines in morbidity and mortality in later life, as was the case for earlier generations. The present study explores the mechanisms that could have produced this “excess” mortality among the baby boom cohorts in Canada and in three racial/ethnic groups in the United States. Using micro-level mortality data from vital statistics systems, we analyzed the contributions of the causes of death that are likely driving this cohort’s excess mortality, and their dynamics over time. The analyses were done using demographic decomposition, visual, and statistical methods. We found evidence of a higher susceptibility of the trailing edge boomers (those born around 1960) to behavioral causes of death: namely, mortality from drugs, alcohol, HIV/AIDS, hepatitis C, COPD, and suicide. Most of these causes contributed to the all-cause mortality disadvantage of baby boomers through sustained cohort effects that followed the cohorts over time. This finding calls into question the assumption that secular improvements in early life conditions lead to a monotonic decline in cohort mortality rates. Instead, there may be important disruptions in the continuous progress in health and mortality, and it is possible that the baby boom generation represents one such disruption. This insight calls for a rethinking of the mechanisms that drive current age-period-cohort mortality patterns. The mechanisms that can generate the observed cohort disadvantage of baby boomers – such as the higher levels of distress and frustration as well as the riskier attitudes toward drug use and sexual practices that are constituent of the boomer generation identity – are addressed and discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Enrique Acosta & Alain Gagnon & Nadine Ouellette & Robert R. Bourbeau & Marilia R. Nepomuceno & Alyson A. van Raalte, 2020. "The boomer penalty: excess mortality among baby boomers in Canada and the United States," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2020-003, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2020-003
    DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2020-003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fogel, Robert W. & Grotte, Nathaniel, 2011. "Major Findings from The Changing Body: Health, Nutrition, and Human Development in the Western World since 1700," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 1-9.
    2. André Palma & Nathalie Picard & Anthony Ziegelmeyer, 2011. "Individual and couple decision behavior under risk: evidence on the dynamics of power balance," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 70(1), pages 45-64, January.
    3. Floud,Roderick & Fogel,Robert W. & Harris,Bernard & Hong,Sok Chul, 2011. "The Changing Body," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521705615.
      • Floud,Roderick & Fogel,Robert W. & Harris,Bernard & Hong,Sok Chul, 2011. "The Changing Body," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521879750.
    4. Robert Fogel & Dora Costa, 1997. "A theory of technophysio evolution, with some implications for forecasting population, health care costs, and pension costs," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 34(1), pages 49-66, February.
    5. Adrien Remund & Carlo G. Camarda & Tim Riffe, 2018. "A Cause-of-Death Decomposition of Young Adult Excess Mortality," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 55(3), pages 957-978, June.
    6. Turner, Sarah & Bound, John, 2003. "Closing the Gap or Widening the Divide: The Effects of the G.I. Bill and World War II on the Educational Outcomes of Black Americans," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 63(1), pages 145-177, March.
    7. Ingrid Waldron & Christopher McCloskey & Inga Earle, 2005. "Trends in gender differences in accidents mortality," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 13(17), pages 415-454.
    8. David T. Ellwood, 1982. "Teenage Unemployment: Permanent Scars or Temporary Blemishes?," NBER Chapters, in: The Youth Labor Market Problem: Its Nature, Causes, and Consequences, pages 349-390, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Liying Luo, 2013. "Assessing Validity and Application Scope of the Intrinsic Estimator Approach to the Age-Period-Cohort Problem," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 50(6), pages 1945-1967, December.
    10. Linda G. Martin & Vicki A. Freedman & Robert F. Schoeni & Patricia M. Andreski, 2009. "Health and Functioning Among Baby Boomers Approaching 60," The Journals of Gerontology: Series B, The Gerontological Society of America, vol. 64(3), pages 369-377.
    11. Leveille, S.G. & Wee, C.C. & Iezzoni, L.I., 2005. "Trends in obesity and arthritis among baby boomers and their predecessors, 1971-2002," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 95(9), pages 1607-1613.
    12. Elisabetta Barbi & Carlo G. Gamba, 2011. "Period and color effects on elderly mortality: a new relational model for smoothing mortality surface," Statistica, Department of Statistics, University of Bologna, vol. 71(1), pages 51-69.
    13. Robert W. Fogel & Nathaniel Grotte, 2011. "An Overview of The Changing Body: Health, Nutrition, and Human Development in the Western World Since 1700," NBER Working Papers 16938, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Easterlin, Richard A., 1987. "Birth and Fortune," University of Chicago Press Economics Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 2, number 9780226180328, September.
    15. repec:cup:judgdm:v:1:y:2006:i::p:48-63 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Roderick Floud & Robert W. Fogel & Bernard Harris & Sok Chul Hong, 2011. "The Changing Body: Health, Nutrition, and Human Development in the Western World since 1700," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number foge10-1, March.
    17. Enrique Acosta & Alyson van Raalte, 2019. "APC curvature plots: Displaying nonlinear age-period-cohort patterns on Lexis plots," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 41(42), pages 1205-1234.
    18. Thomas Lemieux, 1993. "Unions and Wage Inequality in Canada and the United States," NBER Chapters, in: Small Differences That Matter: Labor Markets and Income Maintenance in Canada and the United States, pages 69-108, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Jessica Y. Ho, 2017. "The Contribution of Drug Overdose to Educational Gradients in Life Expectancy in the United States, 1992–2011," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 54(3), pages 1175-1202, June.
    20. Justin P. Steil & Len Albright & Jacob S. Rugh & Douglas S. Massey, 2018. "The social structure of mortgage discrimination," Housing Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(5), pages 759-776, July.
    21. Hui Zheng, 2014. "Aging in the Context of Cohort Evolution and Mortality Selection," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 51(4), pages 1295-1317, August.
    22. James Vaupel & Kenneth Manton & Eric Stallard, 1979. "The impact of heterogeneity in individual frailty on the dynamics of mortality," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 16(3), pages 439-454, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Enrique Acosta & Stacey A. Hallman & Lisa Y. Dillon & Nadine Ouellette & Robert Bourbeau & D. Ann Herring & Kris Inwood & David J. D. Earn & Joaquin Madrenas & Matthew S. Miller & Alain Gagnon, 2019. "Determinants of Influenza Mortality Trends: Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of Influenza Mortality in the United States, 1959–2016," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 56(5), pages 1723-1746, October.
    2. Gregori Galofré-Vilà & Martin McKee & David Stuckler, 2022. "Quantifying the mortality impact of the 1935 old-age assistance," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 26(1), pages 62-77.
    3. Elena Sánchez-García & José-Miguel Martinez-Carrión & Jose Manuel Terán & Carlos Varea, 2021. "Biological Well-Being during the “Economic Miracle” in Spain: Height, Weight and Body Mass Index of Conscripts in the City of Madrid, 1955–1974," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(24), pages 1-16, December.
    4. Galofré Vilà, Gregori, 2020. "Quantifying the impact of aid to dependent children: An epidemiological framework⁎," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    5. Samuel Berlinski & Norbert Schady, 2015. "Daycare Services: It’s All about Quality," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Samuel Berlinski & Norbert Schady (ed.), The Early Years, chapter 4, pages 91-119, Palgrave Macmillan.
    6. Pierre Leviaux & Antoine Parent, 2018. "The biological hypothesis in cliometrics of growth: a methodological critique of Fogel (post 1982) and Ashraf & Galor (2013)," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 28(4), pages 929-950, September.
    7. M. Caridad Araujo & Yyannu Cruz-Aguayo & Analia Jaimovich & Sharon Lynn Kagan, 2015. "Drawing Up an Institutional Architecture," IDB Publications (Book Chapters), in: Samuel Berlinski & Norbert Schady (ed.), The Early Years: Child Well-Being and the Role of Public Policy, edition 1, chapter 7, pages 179-202, Inter-American Development Bank.
    8. Scott A. Carson, 2020. "Female and Male Body Mass, Height, and Weight during US Economic Development: 1860s-1930s," CESifo Working Paper Series 8447, CESifo.
    9. Inwood, Kris & Oxley, Les & Roberts, Evan, 2022. "The mortality risk of being overweight in the twentieth century: Evidence from two cohorts of New Zealand men," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    10. Scott A. Carson, 2022. "Female and Male Calories Across the 19th and Early 20th Century Distributions Using Quantile Regression," CESifo Working Paper Series 10051, CESifo.
    11. José Joaquín García-Gómez & Juan Diego Pérez-Cebada, 2020. "A Socio-Environmental History of a Copper Mining Company: Rio-Tinto Company Limited (1874–1930)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-17, June.
    12. Galofré-Vilà, Gregori, 2018. "Growth and maturity: A quantitative systematic review and network analysis in anthropometric history," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 107-118.
    13. Daniel Gallardo‐Albarrán, 2020. "Sanitary infrastructures and the decline of mortality in Germany, 1877–1913," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 73(3), pages 730-757, August.
    14. Ryan Masters & Robert Hummer & Daniel Powers & Audrey Beck & Shih-Fan Lin & Brian Finch, 2014. "Long-Term Trends in Adult Mortality for U.S. Blacks and Whites: An Examination of Period- and Cohort-Based Changes," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 51(6), pages 2047-2073, December.
    15. Antonio M. Linares-Luján & Francisco M. Parejo-Moruno, 2021. "Rural Height Penalty or Socioeconomic Penalization? The Nutritional Inequality in Backward Spain," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(9), pages 1-25, April.
    16. Marco-Gracia, Francisco J. & Puche, Javier, 2021. "The association between male height and lifespan in rural Spain, birth cohorts 1835-1939," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    17. Ramon Ramon-Muñoz & Josep-Maria Ramon-Muñoz & Begoña Candela-Martínez, 2021. "Sibship Size, Height and Cohort Selection: A Methodological Approach," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(24), pages 1-29, December.
    18. Wilson, Sven E., 2019. "Does adult height predict later mortality?: Comparative evidence from the Early Indicators samples in the United States," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 274-285.
    19. Marianne Ward & John Devereux, 2021. "New Income Comparisons for the late Nineteenth and Early Twentieth Century," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 67(1), pages 222-247, March.
    20. Manuel Llorca-Jaña & Diego Barría Traverso & Diego del Barrio Vásquez & Javier Rivas, 2021. "Malnutrition Rates in Chile from the Nitrate Era to the 1990s," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(24), pages 1-17, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    America; avoidable mortality; cohort analysis; excess mortality; exogenous mortality; mortality trends;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2020-003. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Wilhelm (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.