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Period and color effects on elderly mortality: a new relational model for smoothing mortality surface


  • Elisabetta Barbi

    (Sapienza University of Rome - Italy)

  • Carlo G. Gamba

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research)


This study investigates the relative importance of period and cohort effects in adult and elderly mortality in Italy and Sweden in second half of the 20th century. For this purpose, we devised a two-dimensional semi-parametric model for mortality surfaces that produces good fit to the data and robust estimates of the period and cohort parameters. The findings of this study shows that period effects have been of primary importance in the process of mortality reduction at adult and old ages observed in the last decades. The effects of early-life conditions are modest and often not statistically significant.

Suggested Citation

  • Elisabetta Barbi & Carlo G. Gamba, 2011. "Period and color effects on elderly mortality: a new relational model for smoothing mortality surface," Statistica, Department of Statistics, University of Bologna, vol. 71(1), pages 51-69.
  • Handle: RePEc:bot:rivsta:v:71:y:2011:i:1:p:51-69

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Nadine Ouellette & Magali Barbieri & John R. Wilmoth, 2014. "Period-Based Mortality Change: Turning Points in Trends since 1950," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 40(1), pages 77-106, March.

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