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Period-Based Mortality Change: Turning Points in Trends since 1950

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  • Nadine Ouellette
  • Magali Barbieri
  • John R. Wilmoth

Abstract

type="main"> We investigate a major turning point in mortality trends at adult ages that occurred for many low-mortality countries in the late 1960s or early 1970s. We analyze patterns of total and cause-specific mortality over the past 60 years using data from the Human Mortality Database and the World Health Organization. We focus on four broad categories of causes of death: heart diseases, cerebrovascular diseases, smoking-related cancers, and all other cancers. We use a two-slope regression model to assess the timing and magnitude of turning points in mortality trends over this era, making separate analyses by sex, age, and cause of death. The age pattern of temporal changes is given particular attention. Our results demonstrate convincingly that period-based factors were very significant in the onset of the “cardiovascular revolution” in the years around 1970. In general, although cohort processes cannot be ruled out as a driver of mortality change in recent decades (especially for mortality due to smoking-related cancers), the evidence reviewed here suggests that period factors have been the dominant force behind the mortality trends of high-income countries during this era.

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  • Nadine Ouellette & Magali Barbieri & John R. Wilmoth, 2014. "Period-Based Mortality Change: Turning Points in Trends since 1950," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 40(1), pages 77-106, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:popdev:v:40:y:2014:i:1:p:77-106
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2014.00651.x
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    2. Viorela Diaconu & Nadine Ouellette & Carlo Giovanni Camarda & Robert Bourbeau, 2016. "Insight on 'typical' longevity: An analysis of the modal lifespan by leading causes of death in Canada," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 35(17), pages 471-504.
    3. Hui Zheng & Jonathan Dirlam & Paola Echave, 2021. "Divergent Trends in the Effects of Early Life Factors on Adult Health," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 40(5), pages 1119-1148, October.
    4. F. Peters & J. P. Mackenbach & W. J. Nusselder, 2016. "Does the Impact of the Tobacco Epidemic Explain Structural Changes in the Decline of Mortality?," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 32(5), pages 687-702, December.
    5. Viorela Diaconu & Nadine Ouellette & Robert Bourbeau, 2020. "Modal lifespan and disparity at older ages by leading causes of death: a Canada-U.S. comparison," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 37(4), pages 323-344, December.
    6. Michal Engelman & Christopher L. Seplaki & Ravi Varadhan, 2017. "A Quiescent Phase in Human Mortality? Exploring the Ages of Least Vulnerability," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 54(3), pages 1097-1118, June.

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