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Convergences and divergences in mortality

  • FFF1Jacques NNN1Vallin

    (Institut national d´études démographiques (INED))

  • FFF2France NNN2Meslé

    (Institut national d´études démographiques (INED))

Abdel Omran's 1971 theory of "Epidemiologic Transition" was the first attempt to account for the extraordinary advances in health care made in industrialized countries since the 18th century. In the framework of the Demographic Transition, it implied a general convergence of life expectancies toward a limit imposed by the new epidemiological features of modern societies. However, important failures, occurred in the past decades (mainly the health crisis in Eastern Europe and AIDS in Africa), seem to have stopped that process of convergence. In fact such failures do not really contradict the theory. The latter is much more ruined by the unexpected dramatic improvement in the field of cardiovascular disease experienced since the seventies, which results in a new step of a more general process. On the basis of the broader concept of “Health Transition†initiated by Julio Frenk et al., the present paper tries to rethink the full process in term of divergence/convergence sequences inferred by successive major changes in health technologies and strategies.

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File URL: http://www.demographic-research.org/special/2/2/s2-2.pdf
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Article provided by Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany in its journal Demographic Research Special Collections.

Volume (Year): 2 (2004)
Issue (Month): 2 (April)
Pages: 11-44

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Handle: RePEc:dem:drspec:v:2:y:2004:i:2
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.demogr.mpg.de/

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  1. Eduardo Arriaga, 1984. "Measuring and explaining the change in life expectancies," Demography, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 83-96, February.
  2. repec:cai:popine:popu_p2001_13n1_0040 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. repec:cai:popine:popu_p1968_23n5_0868 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. repec:cai:popine:popu_p2001_13n1_0258 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. repec:cai:popine:popu_p1985_40n4-5_0770 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. repec:cai:poeine:pope_301_0043 is not listed on IDEAS
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