IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/demogr/v56y2019i5d10.1007_s13524-019-00809-y.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Determinants of Influenza Mortality Trends: Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of Influenza Mortality in the United States, 1959–2016

Author

Listed:
  • Enrique Acosta

    (Université de Montréal
    Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research)

  • Stacey A. Hallman

    (Statistics Canada)

  • Lisa Y. Dillon

    (Université de Montréal)

  • Nadine Ouellette

    (Université de Montréal)

  • Robert Bourbeau

    (Université de Montréal)

  • D. Ann Herring

    (McMaster University)

  • Kris Inwood

    (University of Guelph)

  • David J. D. Earn

    (McMaster University
    McMaster University)

  • Joaquin Madrenas

    (Harbor-UCLA Medical Center)

  • Matthew S. Miller

    (McMaster University
    McMaster
    McMaster University)

  • Alain Gagnon

    (Université de Montréal
    Université de Montréal)

Abstract

This study examines the roles of age, period, and cohort in influenza mortality trends over the years 1959–2016 in the United States. First, we use Lexis surfaces based on Serfling models to highlight influenza mortality patterns as well as to identify lingering effects of early-life exposure to specific influenza virus subtypes (e.g., H1N1, H3N2). Second, we use age-period-cohort (APC) methods to explore APC linear trends and identify changes in the slope of these trends (contrasts). Our analyses reveal a series of breakpoints where the magnitude and direction of birth cohort trends significantly change, mostly corresponding to years in which important antigenic drifts or shifts took place (i.e., 1947, 1957, 1968, and 1978). Whereas child, youth, and adult influenza mortality appear to be influenced by a combination of cohort- and period-specific factors, reflecting the interaction between the antigenic experience of the population and the evolution of the influenza virus itself, mortality patterns of the elderly appear to be molded by broader cohort factors. The latter would reflect the processes of physiological capital improvement in successive birth cohorts through secular changes in early-life conditions. Antigenic imprinting, cohort morbidity phenotype, and other mechanisms that can generate the observed cohort effects, including the baby boom, are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Enrique Acosta & Stacey A. Hallman & Lisa Y. Dillon & Nadine Ouellette & Robert Bourbeau & D. Ann Herring & Kris Inwood & David J. D. Earn & Joaquin Madrenas & Matthew S. Miller & Alain Gagnon, 2019. "Determinants of Influenza Mortality Trends: Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of Influenza Mortality in the United States, 1959–2016," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 56(5), pages 1723-1746, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:demogr:v:56:y:2019:i:5:d:10.1007_s13524-019-00809-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s13524-019-00809-y
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s13524-019-00809-y
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s13524-019-00809-y?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wenjiang Fu, 2016. "Constrained Estimators and Consistency of a Regression Model on a Lexis Diagram," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 111(513), pages 180-199, March.
    2. Fogel, Robert W. & Grotte, Nathaniel, 2011. "Major Findings from The Changing Body: Health, Nutrition, and Human Development in the Western World since 1700," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 1-9.
    3. Liying Luo, 2013. "Assessing Validity and Application Scope of the Intrinsic Estimator Approach to the Age-Period-Cohort Problem," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 50(6), pages 1945-1967, December.
    4. David Cutler & Grant Miller, 2005. "The role of public health improvements in health advances: The twentieth-century United States," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 42(1), pages 1-22, February.
    5. Easterlin, Richard A., 1987. "Birth and Fortune," University of Chicago Press Economics Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 2, number 9780226180328, April.
    6. Elaine Kelly, 2011. "The Scourge of Asian Flu: In utero Exposure to Pandemic Influenza and the Development of a Cohort of British Children," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 46(4), pages 669-694.
    7. Simonsen, L. & Clarke, M.J. & Williamson, G.D. & Stroup, D.F. & Arden, N.H. & Schonberger, L.B., 1997. "The impact of influenza epidemics on mortality: Introducing a severity index," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 87(12), pages 1944-1950.
    8. Yueh-Ming Loo & Michael Gale, 2007. "Fatal immunity and the 1918 virus," Nature, Nature, vol. 445(7125), pages 267-268, January.
    9. Michael R. Haines, 2001. "The Urban Mortality Transition in the United States, 1800-1940," NBER Historical Working Papers 0134, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Floud,Roderick & Fogel,Robert W. & Harris,Bernard & Hong,Sok Chul, 2011. "The Changing Body," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521879750, January.
      • Floud,Roderick & Fogel,Robert W. & Harris,Bernard & Hong,Sok Chul, 2011. "The Changing Body," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521705615.
    11. Robert Fogel & Dora Costa, 1997. "A theory of technophysio evolution, with some implications for forecasting population, health care costs, and pension costs," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 34(1), pages 49-66, February.
    12. Darwyn Kobasa & Steven M. Jones & Kyoko Shinya & John C. Kash & John Copps & Hideki Ebihara & Yasuko Hatta & Jin Hyun Kim & Peter Halfmann & Masato Hatta & Friederike Feldmann & Judie B. Alimonti & Li, 2007. "Aberrant innate immune response in lethal infection of macaques with the 1918 influenza virus," Nature, Nature, vol. 445(7125), pages 319-323, January.
    13. Vladimir Canudas-Romo & Michel Guillot, 2015. "Truncated cross-sectional average length of life: A measure for comparing the mortality history of cohorts," Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 69(2), pages 147-159, July.
    14. Robert W. Fogel & Nathaniel Grotte, 2011. "An Overview of The Changing Body: Health, Nutrition, and Human Development in the Western World Since 1700," NBER Working Papers 16938, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Angus Deaton, 2015. "The Great Escape: Health, Wealth, and the Origins of Inequality," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 10054.
    16. Roderick Floud & Robert W. Fogel & Bernard Harris & Sok Chul Hong, 2011. "The Changing Body: Health, Nutrition, and Human Development in the Western World since 1700," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number foge10-1, March.
    17. Samuel H. Preston & Michael R. Haines, 1991. "Fatal Years: Child Mortality in Late Nineteenth-Century America," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number pres91-1, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Arolas, Héctor Pifarré i & Acosta, Enrique & Casasnovas, Guillem López & Lo, Adeline & Nicodemo, Catia & Riffe, Tim & Myrskylä, Mikko, 2020. "Global years of life lost to COVID-19," SocArXiv gveaj, Center for Open Science.
    2. Yann Décarie & Pierre-Carl Michaud, 2020. "Counting the Dead: COVID-19 and Mortality in Québec and British Columbia," CIRANO Working Papers 2020s-58, CIRANO.
    3. Yann Décarie & Pierre-Carl Michaud, 2020. "Counting the Dead: COVID-19 and Mortality in Québec and British Columbia," Cahiers de recherche / Working Papers 2008, Chaire de recherche sur les enjeux économiques intergénérationnels / Research Chair in Intergenerational Economics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Enrique Acosta & Alain Gagnon & Nadine Ouellette & Robert R. Bourbeau & Marilia R. Nepomuceno & Alyson A. van Raalte, 2020. "The boomer penalty: excess mortality among baby boomers in Canada and the United States," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2020-003, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    2. Dora L. Costa, 2015. "Health and the Economy in the United States from 1750 to the Present," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 53(3), pages 503-570, September.
    3. Ryan Masters & Robert Hummer & Daniel Powers & Audrey Beck & Shih-Fan Lin & Brian Finch, 2014. "Long-Term Trends in Adult Mortality for U.S. Blacks and Whites: An Examination of Period- and Cohort-Based Changes," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 51(6), pages 2047-2073, December.
    4. Marco-Gracia, Francisco J. & Puche, Javier, 2021. "The association between male height and lifespan in rural Spain, birth cohorts 1835-1939," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    5. Galofré Vilà, Gregori, 2020. "Quantifying the impact of aid to dependent children: An epidemiological framework⁎," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    6. Weil, David N., 2014. "Health and Economic Growth," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 3, pages 623-682, Elsevier.
    7. Gregori Galofré-Vilà & Martin McKee & David Stuckler, 2022. "Quantifying the mortality impact of the 1935 old-age assistance," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 26(1), pages 62-77.
    8. Elena Sánchez-García & José-Miguel Martinez-Carrión & Jose Manuel Terán & Carlos Varea, 2021. "Biological Well-Being during the “Economic Miracle” in Spain: Height, Weight and Body Mass Index of Conscripts in the City of Madrid, 1955–1974," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(24), pages 1-16, December.
    9. Samuel Berlinski & Norbert Schady, 2015. "Daycare Services: It’s All about Quality," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Samuel Berlinski & Norbert Schady (ed.), The Early Years, chapter 4, pages 91-119, Palgrave Macmillan.
    10. Daniel Gallardo‐Albarrán, 2020. "Sanitary infrastructures and the decline of mortality in Germany, 1877–1913," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 73(3), pages 730-757, August.
    11. Pierre Leviaux & Antoine Parent, 2018. "The biological hypothesis in cliometrics of growth: a methodological critique of Fogel (post 1982) and Ashraf & Galor (2013)," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 28(4), pages 929-950, September.
    12. Gallardo-Albarrán, Daniel, 2018. "Health and economic development since 1900," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 228-237.
    13. Scott A. Carson, 2020. "Biological Differences between Late 19th and Early 20th Century Urban and Rural Residence," CESifo Working Paper Series 8523, CESifo.
    14. Scott A. Carson, 2020. "Female and Male Body Mass, Height, and Weight during US Economic Development: 1860s-1930s," CESifo Working Paper Series 8447, CESifo.
    15. Walker Hanlon, 2018. "London fog: A century of pollution and mortality, 1866-1965," Working Papers 18019, Economic History Society.
    16. José Joaquín García-Gómez & Juan Diego Pérez-Cebada, 2020. "A Socio-Environmental History of a Copper Mining Company: Rio-Tinto Company Limited (1874–1930)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-17, June.
    17. David N. Weil, 2015. "A Review of Angus Deaton's The Great Escape: Health, Wealth, and the Origins of Inequality," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 53(1), pages 102-114, March.
    18. Kesztenbaum, Lionel & Rosenthal, Jean-Laurent, 2017. "Sewers’ diffusion and the decline of mortality: The case of Paris, 1880–1914," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 174-186.
    19. M. Caridad Araujo & Yyannu Cruz-Aguayo & Analia Jaimovich & Sharon Lynn Kagan, 2015. "Drawing Up an Institutional Architecture," IDB Publications (Book Chapters), in: Samuel Berlinski & Norbert Schady (ed.), The Early Years: Child Well-Being and the Role of Public Policy, edition 1, chapter 7, pages 179-202, Inter-American Development Bank.
    20. Inwood, Kris & Oxley, Les & Roberts, Evan, 2022. "The mortality risk of being overweight in the twentieth century: Evidence from two cohorts of New Zealand men," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:demogr:v:56:y:2019:i:5:d:10.1007_s13524-019-00809-y. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.