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Fertility transition and the progression to third birth in Turkey


  • Sutay Yavuz

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)


During the last two decades, Turkey entered into the last phase of its demographic transition. The latest nationwide Turkey Demographic and Health Survey (TDHS) reveals that the current TFR is close to reproduction level, with a wide range of west-east regional disparity. The purpose of this study is to examine important determinants of third-birth intensities of two-child mothers by applying event-history analysis to retrospective survey data. Some of the basic socioeconomic characteristics of women and their first marriages – related to the cultural context of fertility behavior – are investigated with hazard regression models. We demonstrate that the third-birth intensities differ considerably by mother tongue of the woman. Turkish-speaking women who read easily and who were employed and covered by social security before their first marriage had the lowest transition rate from second to third child. In contrast, Kurdish women who could not read and who did not work had the highest third-birth risk. While the fertility decline among Turkish women has been constant for two decades, the fertility remains high among illiterate Kurdish women, who can be classified as laggards in the Turkey’s fertility transition.

Suggested Citation

  • Sutay Yavuz, 2005. "Fertility transition and the progression to third birth in Turkey," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2005-028, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2005-028

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Jan M. Hoem & Alexia Prskawetz & Gerda R. Neyer, 2001. "Autonomy or conservative adjustment? The effect of public policies and educational attainment on third births in Austria," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2001-016, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    2. Bloom, David E & Williamson, Jeffrey G, 1998. "Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 12(3), pages 419-455, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Agata V. D´Addato, 2006. "Fertility developments in Morocco: progression to third birth," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2006-005, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    2. Daniele Vignoli, 2006. "Fertility change in Egypt: from second to third birth," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2006-011, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    3. Sutay Yavuz, 2006. "Completing the fertility transition," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 15(15), pages 435-460, November.
    4. Valeria Cetorelli, 2014. "The Effect on Fertility of the 2003–2011 War in Iraq," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 40(4), pages 581-604, December.

    More about this item


    Turkey; family dynamics; fertility;

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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