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Global profit shifting, 1975–2019

Author

Listed:
  • Ludvig Wier

    (Ministry of Finance, Denmark)

  • Gabriel Zucman

    (UC Berkeley and EU Tax Observatory)

Abstract

This paper constructs time series of global profit shifting covering the 2015–19 period, during which major international efforts were implemented to curb profit shifting. We find that (i) multinational profits grew faster than global profits, (ii) the share of multinational profits booked in tax havens remained constant at around 37 per cent, and (iii) the fraction of global corporate tax revenue lost due to profit shifting rose from 9 to 10 per cent. We extend our time series back to 1975 and document a remarkable increase of multinational profits and global profit shifting from 1975 to 2019.

Suggested Citation

  • Ludvig Wier & Gabriel Zucman, 2022. "Global profit shifting, 1975–2019," Working Papers 007, EU Tax Observatory.
    • Handle: RePEc:dbp:wpaper:007
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    File URL: https://www.taxobservatory.eu//www-site/uploads/2022/12/WP7_Global-Proft-Shifting_December2022.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Vincent Vicard, 2015. "Profit shifting through transfer pricing: evidence from French firm level trade data," Working papers 555, Banque de France.
    2. Ernesto Crivelli & Ruud De Mooij & Michael Keen, 2016. "Base Erosion, Profit Shifting and Developing Countries," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 72(3), pages 268-301, September.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Manon François & Carlos Oliveira & Bluebery Planterose & Gabriel Zucman, 2022. "A Modern Excess Profit Tax," Post-Print halshs-04103941, HAL.
    2. Delis, Fotis & Delis, Manthos D. & Laeven, Luc & Ongena, Steven, 2025. "Global evidence on profit shifting within firms and across time," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2).
    3. Okunogbe, Oyebola M. & Tourek,Gabriel, 2023. "How Can Lower-Income Countries Collect More Taxes ? The Role of Technology, Tax Agents, and Politics," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10655, The World Bank.
    4. Alessandro Ferrari & Sébastien Laffitte & Mathieu Parenti & Farid Toubal, 2024. "Profit Shifting and International Tax Reforms," Working Papers 011, EU Tax Observatory.
    5. Manon François & Carlos Oliveira & Bluebery Planterose & Gabriel Zucman, 2022. "A Modern Excess Profit Tax," Working Papers 005, EU Tax Observatory.
    6. Delis, Fotis & Delis, Manthos D. & Laeven, Luc & Ongena, Steven, 2025. "Global evidence on profit shifting within firms and across time," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2).
    7. Alessandro Ferrari & S'ebastien Laffitte & Mathieu Parenti & Farid Toubal, 2022. "Profit Shifting and International Tax Reforms," Papers 2211.04388, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2025.
    8. Pieretti, Patrice & Pulina, Giuseppe, 2024. "A game-theoretic analysis of international tax compliance," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    9. De Vito, Antonio & Hillmann, Lisa & Jacob, Martin & Vossebürger, Robert, 2025. "Do personal income taxes affect corporate tax-motivated profit shifting?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2).
    10. Santacreu, Ana Maria, 2024. "Comment on: “Optimal Taxation of Multinational Enterprises: A Ramsey Approach”, by Sebastian Dyrda, Guangbin Hong, and Joseph B. Steinberg," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 98-100.
    11. Christine L. Dobridge & Patrick Kennedy & Paul Landefeld & Jacob Mortenson, 2023. "The TCJA and Domestic Corporate Tax Rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-078, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance
    • E25 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Aggregate Factor Income Distribution
    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business

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