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How large is the corporate tax base erosion and profit shifting? A general equilibrium approach

Author

Listed:
  • María T. Álvarez-Martínez
  • Salvador Barrios
  • Diego d'Andria
  • Maria Gesualdo
  • Gaetan Nicodeme
  • Jonathan Pycroft

Abstract

The paper uses the computable general equilibrium model CORTAX to analyse the extent of base erosion and profit shifting (BEPS) in the EU, Japan and the US. Our approach estimates the direct fiscal losses of BEPS and accounts for the second round effects, in particular on the cost of capital and corporate investment. Our central estimates show that the net corporate tax revenue losses in the EU are €36.0 billion per year (7.7% of CIT revenues), €24.0 billion in Japan and €100.8 billion in the US (in both cases representing 10.7% of corporate tax revenues). Our estimates are comparable in size to the global tax revenue losses found using newly reported statistics on foreign affiliates. Our macroeconomic results suggest that eliminating profit shifting would slightly reduce investment and GDP and rise corporate tax revenues, which would positively affect welfare.

Suggested Citation

  • María T. Álvarez-Martínez & Salvador Barrios & Diego d'Andria & Maria Gesualdo & Gaetan Nicodeme & Jonathan Pycroft, 2022. "How large is the corporate tax base erosion and profit shifting? A general equilibrium approach," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(2), pages 167-198, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:ecsysr:v:34:y:2022:i:2:p:167-198
    DOI: 10.1080/09535314.2020.1865882
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    Cited by:

    1. Demetrio Guzzardi & Elisa Palagi & Tommaso Faccio & Andrea Roventini, 2023. "In search of lost time: An ensemble of policies to restore fiscal progressivity and address the climate challenge," LEM Papers Series 2023/28, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    2. Federico Sallusti, 2025. "Measuring Profit Shifting Using “Resident” Information: The PSM-ROC Method," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 73(1), pages 267-315, March.
    3. Brun Lidia & Stoehlker Daniel & Pycroft Jonathan & Van't Riet Maarten, 2025. "A – Potentially Positive – Welfare Assessment of the Global Minimum Tax," JRC Working Papers on Taxation & Structural Reforms 2025-04, Joint Research Centre.
    4. Brun Lidia & Speitmann Raffael & Stasio Andrzej Leszek & Stoehlker Daniel, 2025. "The Corporate Income Tax Gap," JRC Working Papers on Taxation & Structural Reforms 2025-07, Joint Research Centre.
    5. Vincent Vicard, 2019. "The Exorbitant Privilege of High Tax Countries," Working Papers 2019-06, CEPII research center.
    6. Ronald B. Davies & Margarita Lopez-Forero & Benjamin Michallet & Johannes Scheuerer, 2026. "Hidden Profits, Lost Jobs? Tax Havens and Employment Decisions," CESifo Working Paper Series 12464, CESifo.
    7. European Commission, 2018. "Tax Policies in the European Union: 2018 Survey," Taxation Survey 2018, Directorate General Taxation and Customs Union, European Commission.
    8. European Commission, 2019. "Tax Policies in the European Union: 2020 Survey," Taxation Survey 2020, Directorate General Taxation and Customs Union, European Commission.
    9. Nabavi Pardis & Nordström Martin, 2023. "The Impact Assessment of Implementing a Global Minimum Tax for MNEs in Sweden," Nordic Tax Journal, Sciendo, vol. 2023(1), pages 111-123, December.
    10. Barrios, Salvador & d'Andria, Diego & Gesualdo, Maria, 2020. "Reducing tax compliance costs through corporate tax base harmonization in the European Union," Journal of International Accounting, Auditing and Taxation, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    11. Alessio Anzuini & Elena Pisano & Luca Rossi & Alessandra Sanelli & Enrico Tosti & Ernesto Zangari, 2023. "Clever planning or unfair play? Exploring the economic and statistical impacts of tax avoidance by multinationals," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 799, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    12. Tiago Cardao-Pito, 2023. "How to identify norms, laws, and regulations that facilitate illicit financial flows and related financial crimes," Journal of Money Laundering Control, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 27(4), pages 674-686, August.
    13. Thomas Tørsløv & Ludvig Wier & Gabriel Zucman, 2023. "Externalities in International Tax Enforcement: Theory and Evidence," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 497-525, May.
    14. Patrice Christmann, 2021. "Mineral Resource Governance in the 21st Century and a sustainable European Union," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 34(2), pages 187-208, July.
    15. Konstantinos Marinakos & Georgia Pistikou & Alkistis Papaioanou, 2023. "Tax Evasion in Hospitality Industry: Institutional Deficit, Mentality or Necessity?," Bulletin of Applied Economics, Risk Market Journals, vol. 10(1), pages 69-79.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H25 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Business Taxes and Subsidies
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance
    • H87 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - International Fiscal Issues; International Public Goods

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