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Global Profit Shifting, 1975-2019

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  • Ludvig S. Wier
  • Gabriel Zucman

Abstract

This paper constructs time series of global profit shifting covering the 2015–19 period, during which major international efforts were implemented to curb profit shifting. We find that (i) multinational profits grew faster than global profits, (ii) the share of multinational profits booked in tax havens remained constant at around 37 per cent, and (iii) the fraction of global corporate tax revenue lost due to profit shifting rose from 9 to 10 per cent. We extend our time series back to 1975 and document a remarkable increase of multinational profits and global profit shifting from 1975 to 2019.

Suggested Citation

  • Ludvig S. Wier & Gabriel Zucman, 2022. "Global Profit Shifting, 1975-2019," NBER Working Papers 30673, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30673
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. V. Vicard, 2015. "Profit shifting through transfer pricing: evidence from French firm level trade data," Working papers 555, Banque de France.
    2. Ernesto Crivelli & Ruud De Mooij & Michael Keen, 2016. "Base Erosion, Profit Shifting and Developing Countries," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 72(3), pages 268-301, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Xuyang, 2024. "The Global Minimum Tax, Investment Incentives and Asymmetric Tax Competition," MPRA Paper 121893, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Alessandro Ferrari & Sébastien Laffitte & Mathieu Parenti & Farid Toubal, 2022. "Profit Shifting Frictions and the Geography of Multinational Activity," Working Papers halshs-04103710, HAL.
    3. Andreas Haufler & Hayato Kato & Hayato Kato, 2024. "A Global Minimum Tax for Large Firms Only: Implications for Tax Competition," CESifo Working Paper Series 11087, CESifo.
    4. Manon François & Carlos Oliveira & Bluebery Planterose & Gabriel Zucman, 2022. "A Modern Excess Profit Tax," Post-Print halshs-04103941, HAL.
    5. S. Nobili, 2024. "Concentration, Market Power and International Tax Competition," Working Paper CRENoS 202406, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    6. Xuyang Chen, 2024. "The Global Minimum Tax, Investment Incentives and Asymmetric Tax Competition," Papers 2409.05397, arXiv.org.
    7. Amendolagine, Vito & Bruno, Randolph Luca & Cipollina, Maria & De Pascale, Gianluigi, 2023. "Minimum Global Tax: Winners and Losers in the Race for Mergers and Acquisitions," IZA Discussion Papers 16144, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. Marius Brülhart & Marko Koethenbuerger & Matthias Krapf & Raphaël Parchet & Kurt Schmidheiny & David Staubli, 2024. "Competition, Harmonization and Redistribution: Corporate Taxes in Switzerland," NBER Chapters, in: Policy Responses to Tax Competition, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Garcia-Bernardo, Javier & Janský, Petr, 2024. "Profit shifting of multinational corporations worldwide," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    10. André Sanchez Pacheco, . "Consolidated foreign wealth of nations: Nationality-based measures of international exposure," UNCTAD Transnational Corporations Journal, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
    11. Christine L. Dobridge & Patrick Kennedy & Paul Landefeld & Jacob Mortenson, 2023. "The TCJA and Domestic Corporate Tax Rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-078, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E25 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Aggregate Factor Income Distribution
    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance

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