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Global Profit Shifting, 1975 – 2019

Author

Listed:
  • Ludvig Wier

    (Ministry of finance Denmark)

  • Gabriel Zucman

    (EU Tax - EU Tax Observatory, UC Berkeley - University of California [Berkeley] - UC - University of California)

Abstract

This paper constructs time series of global profit shifting covering the 2015–19 period, during which major international efforts were implemented to curb profit shifting. We find that (i) multinational profits grew faster than global profits, (ii) the share of multinational profits booked in tax havens remained constant at around 37 per cent, and (iii) the fraction of global corporate tax revenue lost due to profit shifting rose from 9 to 10 per cent. We extend our time series back to 1975 and document a remarkable increase of multinational profits and global profit shifting from 1975 to 2019.

Suggested Citation

  • Ludvig Wier & Gabriel Zucman, 2022. "Global Profit Shifting, 1975 – 2019," Working Papers halshs-04103666, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-04103666
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-04103666v1
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    Cited by:

    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Chen, Xuyang, 2024. "The Global Minimum Tax, Investment Incentives and Asymmetric Tax Competition," MPRA Paper 121893, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Alessandro Ferrari & Sébastien Laffitte & Mathieu Parenti & Farid Toubal, 2022. "Profit Shifting Frictions and the Geography of Multinational Activity," Working Papers halshs-04103710, HAL.
    4. Manon François & Carlos Oliveira & Bluebery Planterose & Gabriel Zucman, 2022. "A Modern Excess Profit Tax," Post-Print halshs-04103941, HAL.
    5. S. Nobili, 2024. "Concentration, Market Power and International Tax Competition," Working Paper CRENoS 202406, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    6. Xuyang Chen & Rui Sun, 2024. "The Global Minimum Tax, Investment Incentives and Asymmetric Tax Competition," Papers 2409.05397, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2025.
    7. Amendolagine, Vito & Bruno, Randolph Luca & Cipollina, Maria & De Pascale, Gianluigi, 2023. "Minimum Global Tax: Winners and Losers in the Race for Mergers and Acquisitions," IZA Discussion Papers 16144, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. Andreas Hauer & Hayato Kato, 2024. "A Global Minimum Tax for Large Firms Only: Implications for Tax Competition," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 24-06, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics.
    9. Okunogbe, Oyebola M. & Tourek,Gabriel, 2023. "How Can Lower-Income Countries Collect More Taxes ? The Role of Technology, Tax Agents, and Politics," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10655, The World Bank.
    10. Collin,Matthew Edward, 2023. "The Impact of Tax Blacklisting," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10435, The World Bank.
    11. Alessandro Ferrari & S'ebastien Laffitte & Mathieu Parenti & Farid Toubal, 2022. "Profit Shifting and International Tax Reforms," Papers 2211.04388, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2025.
    12. Chen, Xuyang & Sun, Rui, 2025. "The Global Minimum Tax, Investment Incentives and Asymmetric Tax Competition," MPRA Paper 126538, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Manon François & Carlos Oliveira & Bluebery Planterose & Gabriel Zucman, 2022. "A Modern Excess Profit Tax," Working Papers 005, EU Tax Observatory.
    14. Delis, Fotis & Delis, Manthos D. & Laeven, Luc & Ongena, Steven, 2025. "Global evidence on profit shifting within firms and across time," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2).
    15. Marius Brülhart & Marko Koethenbuerger & Matthias Krapf & Raphaël Parchet & Kurt Schmidheiny & David Staubli, 2024. "Competition, Harmonization, and Redistribution: Corporate Taxes in Switzerland," NBER Chapters, in: Policy Responses to Tax Competition, pages 401-471, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. De Vito, Antonio & Hillmann, Lisa & Jacob, Martin & Vossebürger, Robert, 2025. "Do personal income taxes affect corporate tax-motivated profit shifting?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2).
    17. André Sanchez Pacheco, . "Consolidated foreign wealth of nations: Nationality-based measures of international exposure," UNCTAD Transnational Corporations Journal, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
    18. Garcia-Bernardo, Javier & Janský, Petr, 2024. "Profit shifting of multinational corporations worldwide," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    19. Christine L. Dobridge & Patrick Kennedy & Paul Landefeld & Jacob Mortenson, 2023. "The TCJA and Domestic Corporate Tax Rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-078, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    20. Alessandro Chiari, 2024. "Revenue losses from corporate tax avoidance: Estimations from the UNUWIDER Government Revenue Dataset," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(2), pages 600-629, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E25 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Aggregate Factor Income Distribution
    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance

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