IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cyb/wpaper/2016-2.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Bank Lending to the Private Sector and GDP Growth: Thresholds and Returns

Author

Listed:
  • Demetris Koursaros

    (Cyprus University of Technology)

  • Nektarios A. Michail

    (Central Bank of Cyprus)

  • Christos S. Savva

    (Cyprus University of Technology)

Abstract

We examine the relationship between lending to the private sector and GDP growth using a two-period model and test model conclusions through a Smooth Transition Conditional Correlation (STCC) model for the G7 countries. Theory suggests that the correlation between private lending and growth is positive and this relationship exhibits diminishing returns after a threshold. The empirical exercise confirms that this relationship holds, and while thresholds exist for most countries, the correlation between private lending and growth is never negative. Overall, the evidence indicates that policy should not emphasise the level of lending but its allocation in the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Demetris Koursaros & Nektarios A. Michail & Christos S. Savva, 2016. "Bank Lending to the Private Sector and GDP Growth: Thresholds and Returns," Working Papers 2016-2, Central Bank of Cyprus.
    • Handle: RePEc:cyb:wpaper:2016-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.centralbank.cy/images/media/pdf/Working_Paper_2016_2.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Demetriades, Panicos O & Luintel, Kul B, 1996. "Financial Development, Economic Growth and Banker Sector Controls: Evidence from India," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(435), pages 359-374, March.
    2. Calderon, Cesar & Liu, Lin, 2003. "The direction of causality between financial development and economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 321-334, October.
    3. De Gregorio, Jose & Guidotti, Pablo E., 1995. "Financial development and economic growth," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 433-448, March.
    4. Arestis, Philip & Demetriades, Panicos O & Luintel, Kul B, 2001. "Financial Development and Economic Growth: The Role of Stock Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(1), pages 16-41, February.
    5. Annastiina Silvennoinen & Timo Teräsvirta, 2005. "Multivariate Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity with Smooth Transitions in Conditional Correlations," Research Paper Series 168, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    6. Stephen Cecchetti & Madhusudan Mohanty & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2011. "The real effects of debt," BIS Working Papers 352, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    8. Odedokun, M. O., 1996. "Alternative econometric approaches for analysing the role of the financial sector in economic growth: Time-series evidence from LDCs," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 119-146, June.
    9. Shan, Jordan Z & Morris, Alan G & Sun, Fiona, 2001. "Financial Development and Economic Growth: An Egg-and-Chicken Problem?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 443-454, August.
    10. Levine, Ross, 2005. "Finance and Growth: Theory and Evidence," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 12, pages 865-934, Elsevier.
    11. Stephen Cecchetti & Enisse Kharroubi, 2012. "Reassessing the impact of finance on growth," BIS Working Papers 381, Bank for International Settlements.
    12. Christian Dembiermont & Mathias Drehmann & Siriporn Muksakunratana, 2013. "How much does the private sector really borrow - a new database for total credit to the private non-financial sector," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    13. Demetriades, Panicos O. & Hussein, Khaled A., 1996. "Does financial development cause economic growth? Time-series evidence from 16 countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 387-411, December.
    14. Hassan, M. Kabir & Sanchez, Benito & Yu, Jung-Suk, 2011. "Financial development and economic growth: New evidence from panel data," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 88-104, February.
    15. Arestis, Philip & Demetriades, Panicos O, 1997. "Financial Development and Economic Growth: Assessing the Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(442), pages 783-799, May.
    16. Berben, Robert-Paul & Jansen, W. Jos, 2005. "Comovement in international equity markets: A sectoral view," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 832-857, September.
    17. J. Shan & A. Morris & F. Sun, 1999. "Financial development and economic growth: An egg-and-chicken problem?," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 5(4), pages 514-514, November.
    18. Law, Siong Hook & Singh, Nirvikar, 2014. "Does too much finance harm economic growth?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 36-44.
    19. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Paul Krugman, 2012. "Debt, Deleveraging, and the Liquidity Trap: A Fisher-Minsky-Koo Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 127(3), pages 1469-1513.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Demetris Koursaros & Nektarios A. Michail & Christos S. Savva, 2016. "Bank Lending to the Private Sector and GDP Growth: Thresholds and Returns," Working Papers 2016-02, Central Bank of Cyprus.
    2. Demetris Koursaros & Nektarios Michail & Christos Savva, 2021. "Tell me where to stop: thresholds in the bank lending and output growth relationship," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(4), pages 1845-1873, April.
    3. Samargandi, Nahla & Fidrmuc, Jan & Ghosh, Sugata, 2015. "Is the Relationship Between Financial Development and Economic Growth Monotonic? Evidence from a Sample of Middle-Income Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 66-81.
    4. James B. Ang, 2008. "A Survey Of Recent Developments In The Literature Of Finance And Growth," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 536-576, July.
    5. Tebogo Tshepo Kubanji & Simangaliso Biza-Khupe & Mogotsinyana Mapharing, 2021. "The Causality Relationship Between Financial Sector Profitability and the Botswana Economy," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 12(3), pages 381-392, May.
    6. António Afonso & M. Carmen Blanco-Arana, 2018. "Financial Development and Economic Growth: A Study for OECD Countries in the Context of Crisis," Working Papers REM 2018/46, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    7. Mehmet Zeki Ak & Mustafa Kirca & Mehmet Nurullah Altintaº, 2016. "The impacts of financial development on growth:A time-varying causality analysis for Turkey," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 34(2), pages 529-554.
    8. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2019. "Financial Development and Tax Revenue in Developing Countries: Investigating the International Trade and Economic Growth Channels," EconStor Preprints 206628, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    9. Michiel Bijlsma & Andrei Dubovik, 2014. "Banks, Financial Markets and Growth in Developed Countries: a Survey of the empirical literature," CPB Discussion Paper 266.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    10. Mariusz Prochniak & Katarzyna Wasiak, 2017. "The impact of the financial system on economic growth in the context of the global crisis: empirical evidence for the EU and OECD countries," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 44(2), pages 295-337, May.
    11. Michiel Bijlsma & Andrei Dubovik, 2014. "Banks, Financial Markets and Growth in Developed Countries: a Survey of the empirical literature," CPB Discussion Paper 266, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    12. Alessandro Giovannini & Maurizio Iacopetta & Raoul Minetti, 2013. "Financial Markets, Banks, and Growth : Disentangling the links," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(5), pages 105-147.
    13. M. Kabir Hassan & Benito Sanchez & Jung-Suk Yu, 2011. "Financial Development and Economic Growth in the Organization of Islamic Conference Countries التطور المالي والنمو الاقتصادي في دول منظمة المؤتمر الإسلامي," Journal of King Abdulaziz University: Islamic Economics, King Abdulaziz University, Islamic Economics Institute., vol. 24(1), pages 145-172, January.
    14. Jean Arcand & Enrico Berkes & Ugo Panizza, 2015. "Too much finance?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 105-148, June.
    15. Pradhan, Rudra P. & Arvin, Mak B. & Bahmani, Sahar & Hall, John H. & Norman, Neville R., 2017. "Finance and growth: Evidence from the ARF countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 136-148.
    16. Rudra P. Pradhan & Mak B. Arvin & John H. Hall & Sahar Bahmani, 2014. "Causal nexus between economic growth, banking sector development, stock market development, and other macroeconomic variables: The case of ASEAN countries," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 23(4), pages 155-173, November.
    17. Abdul Rahman & Muhammad Arshad Khan & Lanouar Charfeddine, 2020. "Does Financial Sector Promote Economic Growth in Pakistan? Empirical Evidences From Markov Switching Model," SAGE Open, , vol. 10(4), pages 21582440209, October.
    18. Abdul Bahri, Elya Nabila & Mohd Nor, Abu Hassan Shaari & Sarmidi, Tamat & Haji Mohd Nor, Nor Hakimah, 2018. "Nonlinear Relationship between Financial Development and Economic Growth: Evidence from Post Global Financial Crisis Panel Data," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 52(1), pages 15-30.
    19. Magda Kandil & Muhammad Shahbaz & Mantu Kumar Mahalik & Duc Khuong Nguyen, 2017. "The drivers of economic growth in China and India: globalization or financial development?," International Journal of Development Issues, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 16(1), pages 54-84, April.
    20. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/6o65lgig8d0qcro9p14jk1001 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Kluge, Jan & Lappoehn, Sarah & Plank, Kerstin, 2020. "The Determinants of Economic Competitiveness," IHS Working Paper Series 24, Institute for Advanced Studies.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    private debt; correlation; bank lending; threshold; policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cyb:wpaper:2016-2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Anna Markidou (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cbcgvcy.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.